Free Pick | NCAA | Wednesday | Feb. 21

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#690 Miami, FL +7 over Duke 6:00 PM CT

Miami has gone from 6-5 in ACC play to 6-9, falling well on the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament bubble following a loss at Boston College Saturday. The recent schedule has been difficult facing Virginia, North Carolina, and Clemson in succession prior to the trip to Boston but this home date is now a critical season-making game. Miami will have a good opportunity to post a winning record in the final four games of the season, but they need this upset or an upset at North Carolina next week to even enter the bubble conversation. Miami has seven top 100 wins this season but has been inconsistent with a few bad losses, but Jim Larranaga’s team has played Duke tough in recent years, going 3-3 S/U and 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings including winning S/U in the past two meetings in Miami. Duke beat Miami in the ACC Tournament last March in the most recent meeting between these teams, a loss that preceded a Final Four run for the Hurricanes while Duke was bounced in the opening weekend. Duke’s 11-3 record in the ACC has come through the #14 ranked schedule and the defense has been suspect this season. Tyrese Proctor missed Duke’s narrow win at Florida State over the weekend and is a question mark tonight while more than half of Duke’s ACC wins have come by 10 or fewer points. Duke has a much bigger game with Wake Forest on deck and against top 80 teams (where Miami lies) Duke is only 6-3 this season with only one win by more than 10 points. Duke’s defense is vulnerable inside the arc and Miami has an effective field goal rate that is only slightly below Duke’s, in the top six in the ACC. Miami still has a capable defense and a depth edge in this contest and the Hurricanes should be at their best tonight, even if Nijel Pack again must miss this game. Pack is just a 36 percent 3-point shooter despite the most attempts on the team as his numbers have dropped considerably from last season and a roster shake-up might prove beneficial in the short term for the Hurricanes.