Free Pick | NCAA | Thursday | March 2

Nelly’s Basketball went 3-0 last night to make it an 11-2 run the past six days to take great momentum into March Madness. We went 30-14 in March 2022 in college basketball!

Free Pick Thursday: #785 Valparaiso +1.5 over Murray State 6:00 PM CT (MVC Tournament)

Murray State went 2-0 vs. Valparaiso this season with early season and late season wins, both of which came in overtime. The Racers were +24 in free throw attempts in those games to decide the outcomes and Valparaiso’s size edge was evident as Ben Krikke put up 55 points in those games for the Beacons. Murray State went 11-9 while Valparaiso went just 5-15 in MVC play but close games were common. On the 1-7 run down the stretch the Beacons lost three overtime games while Murray State has three one-point wins in a 4-4 run to close the season. Murray State is among the worst defensive teams in the conference with particular struggles with turnovers and 3-point defense, the highest volume 3-point shooter for Valparaiso, Quentin Green, is expected to return for this game after missing the regular season finale. Murray State is just 4-10 ATS on the road this season with a losing ATS record vs. losing teams. This is also the first trip to St. Louis for Arch Madness for the MVC newcomer while Valparaiso has posted five tournament wins the past four years under Matt Lottich. This tournament has had some upsets in recent years as top-to-bottom the conference is much tighter with the departure of several prominent programs and Valparaiso is a threat for a minor upset in this 7/10 pairing.

Check out a 7* top play from Nelly’s tonight or join us for all of March Madness!