Free Pick | NCAA | Thursday | Jan. 16

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#774 Minnesota +10.5 over Michigan 6:00 PM CT

Michigan is off to a 5-0 start in Big Ten play for Dusty May but the Wolverines haven’t had a very difficult conference path so far. Wins over Wisconsin and Iowa came by single-possession finals for fortunate results while the Wolverines went just 2-3 in top 100 non-conference games as this doesn’t feel like a team that should be leading the Big Ten and climbing the top 25 poll. With two 7-footers the front court is formidable for the Wolverines, but Minnesota’s Dawson Garcia is one of the top forwards in the Big Ten. The Gophers are 0-6 in conference play, but they have faced an incredibly difficult run of Big Ten games with the home dates vs. Michigan State, Purdue, and Ohio State. Minnesota took the Buckeyes to double overtime in the last home game and played Maryland close on the road on Monday as this team has turned in several competitive performances against Big Ten contenders. Free throws have been a problem, but Minnesota takes good care of the ball and Michigan’s defense has inflated statistics thanks to its favorable path so far including facing the #18, #15, and #8 Big Ten offenses on the current 3-0 Big Ten run since the calendar flipped to 2025. Michigan was an underdog in Big Ten road games at UCLA and at Wisconsin and Minnesota was just +5 or +5.5 in its three Big Ten home games vs. top contenders, now getting nearly double that underdog price tonight.