Free Pick | NCAA | Saturday | Sep. 21

Check out Nelly’s 2/3 offer for Saturday with a 6-3 record the past three weeks in college football!

#391 Florida -6.5 over Mississippi State 11:00 AM CT

Florida has been ridiculed considerably and no one expects Billy Napier to survive the season, but the Gators have had to play two difficult foes with Miami potentially the ACC’s best team while Texas A&M has an elite defense. Mississippi State should be the most favorable matchup the Gators have had in FBS play as the Bulldogs are in a major transition season and don’t seem to have the talent level of past seasons. Mississippi State lost by only seven at Arizona State, but the Bulldogs were down 30-3 late in the third quarter and only managed 292 yards. Toledo isn’t even expected to be a top MAC contender this season and the Rockets crushed Mississippi State in Starkville last week 41-17. Missisisppi State averaged 2.4 yards per carry on the ground vs. a MAC team at home last week and while Blake Shapen has had some positive moments in his career, he may have stepped into an impossible situation. Mississippi State had 10 penalties for over 100 yards last week and the Bulldogs went 0-4 S/U in SEC home games last season as there is no meaningful edge at home. Florida has struggled but they have also likely faced two teams that could wind up as top 10 caliber teams by season’s end and this could be a buy-low spot on a team with some talent with their backs against the wall.

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