Free Pick | NCAA | Saturday | Oct. 5

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#317 East Carolina -8.5 over Charlotte 2:30 PM CT

East Carolina’s first AAC game of the season was a win beating UTSA last week 30-20. It was an even game statistically and the Pirates won with a significant rushing deficit, but those numbers were outliers on the season returns. East Carolina has allowed just 3.4 yards per rush this season and while the Pirates struggle on offensive end on the ground, Charlotte is not a strong rushing team, and the 49ers are one of the nation’s worst run defenses. The 3-2 start for East Carolina has featured no major conference tests but four solid opponents in a row to put the Pirates in midseason form. Charlotte’s schedule gets a boost for blowout losses to James Madison, North Carolina, and Indiana but this is a team that barely beat FCS Gardner-Webb, a 1-4 FCS team, while last week’s big win at Rice was incredibly improbable. Charlotte trailed by six late in the game but scored in the final minute to complete a 77-yard go-ahead touchdown drive. For the game Charlotte was defeated in yardage 463-304 and the 49ers allowed Rice to get into field position in the final seconds, but the Owls missed a 40-yard kick for the win. Charlotte posted just 2.3 yards per rush last week against Rice as the 49ers will need to lean on the passing game behind Deshawn Purdie, a freshman that has played in just three games was the #3 quarterback to start the season, with Max Brown injured and Trexler Ivey ineffective. Even if Brown returns the Florida transfer has 49 career completions and struggled in his two games with the 49ers. East Carolina has allowed just over 18 points per game through a credible schedule and the Pirates aren’t far from being 5-0 as they had double-digit leads in both losses. Jake Garcia does have 11 interceptions this season but seven came in the first two games of the season and he is asked to throw often in Mike Houston’s offense. The Pirates should have the opportunity for good balance in this draw and this is a fade spot for Charlotte coming off a miraculous road win. This is also a revenge spot as Charlotte won 10-7 in Greenville last season in likely the worst offensive performance the program has had under Houston. This is Houston’s sixth season at East Carolina with disappointing results and a disastrous season last year as this is a stretch in the schedule his team needs to perform in, and they have the tools to deliver a convincing result.