Free Pick | NCAA | Saturday | Oct. 26

Nelly’s has a 7* top play going for Saturday coming off a 7* win last weekend!

#212 Oregon -21.5 over Illinois 2:30 PM CT

Credit Oregon for a huge win over Ohio State but it was a coin-flip one-point game and not much else on the resume for the Ducks has impressed as this doesn’t feel like a deserving #1 team in the polls, but winning out in its Big Ten debut feels very realistic. Oregon has had several games with only modest edges and last week’s game with Purdue deserved a tighter final score than the 35-0 result. The Ducks do feel capable of a major breakout game however, and this week’s game may be a strong candidate for one of the best performances of the season. Illinois is 6-1 as Bret Bielema’s comeback as a top tier Big Ten coach is complete. The Illini have had good close-game fortune however, and the 14-point Penn State loss wasn’t that close statistically as there could still be a major gap between the Illini and the top tier teams in the conference. After beating Michigan in a low scoring game last week, this could be a challenging follow-up game. Illinois was outgained 322-267 last week but was +3 in turnovers with Michigan struggling the quarterback position. Oregon has no such issues with an efficient offensive attack led by Dillon Gabriel and this is the same Illinois defense that allowed big numbers to Purdue earlier this month. Oregon hasn’t topped 35 points in Big Ten play yet this season but the defense has held three of four foes to 13 or fewer points. The Illinois run defense has allowed 5.2 yards per rush the past three games despite the success while Illinois is one of the worst rushing teams in the Big Ten, averaging just 3.7 yards per rush for the season in strong contrast to the numbers for Oregon on the ground. Illinois hadn’t defeated Michigan since 2009 and this could be a much tougher contest for the Illini than the 6-1 vs. 7-0 records suggest.