Free Pick | NCAA | Saturday | Nov. 19

Free Pick Saturday: #416 Middle Tennessee State +6 over Florida Atlantic 2:30 PM CT

This is a bowl play-in game between two 5-5 squads but it will come in a difficult turnaround for Florida Atlantic, facing a second straight road game after blasting rival Florida International last weekend. That was a bit of a misleading result as FAU put up 52 points with only 385 yards, making the most of a 4-0 turnover edge. The Owls will play Western Kentucky next week and won’t play Conference USA leader UTSA as it has been a favorable draw to reach 4-2 in league play. Middle Tennessee State in contrast opened the season with UTSA and faced three of the top league contenders in succession following the non-conference upset win over Miami. Predictably the Blue Raiders started 0-3 but have won two of the past three games to reach 5-5 overall even while playing two of the past three on the road. Chase Cunningham did not play in last week’s win over Charlotte nor did top WR Jaylin Lane but the market seems optimistic that they could return this week though Rick Stockstill and the university have not provided any meaningful information. Nicholas Vattiato has played competently in relief and should have some confidence after winning in his first start last week while Frank Pleasant has had three straight productive games on the ground. Middle Tennessee state has allowed just 3.7 yards per rush this season as the defense can compete and the ugly numbers from the opening blowout loss to James Madison still skew the season numbers. Florida Atlantic had 366 rushing yards against a FCS team and the only other two 200 yard rushing games were against the two worst teams in the conference as the edge on the ground appears exaggerated. MTSU has not hosted this series since 2018 and the host has won and covered in four of the past five meetings and this underdog price is alluring with some upside potential if the roster is more complete for the Blue Raiders.

Check out Nelly’s 9* top play for Saturday college football and look for our NFL 2/3 for Sunday (19-8 Week 11 run the last 7 years). We have also started 8-1 in college basketball this season!

Big E’s 25* College Game of the Year goes today – 14-4 run in his biggest 25* college picks since 2013! Big E has won SEVEN Biggies in a row after Friday’s winner!