Free Pick | NCAA | Saturday | April 5

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#686 Villanova -3 over UCF 3:00 PM CT

Villanova and UCF have been unlikely teams to make strong postseason runs with Villanova being led by interim head coach Mike Nardi, before Kevin Willard takes over. The Wildcats didn’t get any notable wins in non-conference play this season other than beating Cincinnati from the Big XII, the team UCF just beat on Thursday in the Crown Tournament. Villanova beat Colorado from the Big XII in this tournament before narrowly defeating USC on Thursday. The Wildcats also beat Connecticut, Xavier, St. John’s, and Marquette in the Big East season and in a 9-4 run since early February this has looked like a stronger team than the season results display. Villanova is an elite 3-point shooting team hitting nearly 40 percent on the season, fifth best nationally. The Wildcats are also a top 10 team at the free throw line and a low-turnover team for an appealing postseason performer. Turnovers and free throws carry significant weight when playing an up-tempo team like UCF and the Knights ranked as one of the worst defensive teams in the Big XII. UCF is just a 32 percent 3-point shooting team as well and the current roster is even worse from long range with Keyshawn Hall among four regulars that haven’t been able to play in this tournament for UCF. Thursday’s win over conference rival Cincinnati featured a major free throw edge and efficient scoring inside from UCF while leading in turnovers and making 10 3-point shots. That was the first top 60 win for UCF since the calendar flipped to 2025 and Villanova has played a tougher path to reach this game and was the more reliable performer in the past two months.