Free Pick | NCAA | Friday | March 21

Nelly’s is 15-4 in the Round of 64 since the 2022 NCAA Tournament – check out afternoon and night game picks Friday!

#808 Maryland -10 over Grand Canyon 3:35 PM CT

Grand Canyon may draw some support as an upset threat as the Antelopes won a 5/12 game last season upsetting Saint Mary’s in the NCAA Tournament. This is the fourth NCAA Tournament trip for Bryce Drew in his fifth season with the program, but this year’s team doesn’t resemble the outstanding statistical profile of last year’s team despite winning the WAC tournament title and landing in the NCAA field as a #13 seed. Grand Canyon did beat Stanford in November but that is the only top 100 win for the Antelopes. Grand Canyon plays at a very past pace and does draw a west coast venue with Maryland having to make a long trip West to Seattle, but the afternoon time slot could favor the Terrapins. The fastest pace team in the Big Ten is Illinois and while Maryland had several close games wins in Big Ten play, they beat Illinois by 21 and 23 points in two meetings. Maryland is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the Big Ten. Quietly Maryland was a top six defense nationally as this team deserved more attention as the second place finisher in the Big Ten regular season. Kevin Willard doesn’t have a great NCAA Tournament track record, but this is also the best defensive team he had at Maryland or in his time at Seton Hall. This is also the best 3-point shooting team he has ever coached. Willard’s NCAA Tournament losses in the Round of 64 seed came as a 6, 9, 10, and 8 seed as this will be his best seeding in the field, though his 2019-20 team at Seton Hall might have been seeded higher if that season was completed. Drew must be drawing some interest for a few of the coaching vacancies for a possible distraction and this year’s team has very poor 3-point shooting and turnover rates on offense that are not markers of a Round of 64 upset threat. Maryland was a double-digit favorite three times late in the Big Ten season and went 3-0 ATS and with few turnovers and solid free throw shooting, Maryland should be a threat to pull away for a comfortable result.