Free Pick | NCAA | Friday | March 15

Nelly’s has a daytime 7* top play going today – 3-1 in our last four 7* selections!

#810 Northwestern +4 over Wisconsin 1:30 PM CT

Wisconsin shot the lights out on Thursday in a rare blowout win for a team that stumbled to 11-9 in Big Ten play from an 8-1 start. Maryland was a flawed opponent that lacked the offensive potential to keep up as Wisconsin made 15 3-point shots in a blowout that featured a 42-point lead at one point. The Badgers were able spread minutes around to prepare for today’s pairing with Northwestern, but Wisconsin isn’t likely to win a 3-point shooting contest with the Wildcats. Wisconsin did win the head-to-head meeting back in early January 71-63 in Madison, shooting 50 percent from 3-point range while Northwestern shot below 29 percent. That result featured only seven 3-point makes for the Badgers, however, who had a massive free throw edge to offset a rare turnover deficit. Northwestern drew a more difficult Big Ten schedule than Wisconsin yet was the #1 team in the conference in lowest turnover rate, and the #1 team in 3-point shooting, connecting at over 42 percent in league play. Wisconsin’s downfall this season wasn’t its offense but a shaky defense that has been one of the worst defensive units of the Greg Gard era. This year’s Wisconsin defense ranks dead last in the Big Ten allowing over 39 percent from 3-point range. Northwestern gets a great deal of its points beyond the arc, and this should be a favorable matchup for the Wildcats to have good opportunities from long range. Wisconsin has lost S/U in two of the past three meetings in this series with mostly close games in the recent history and Wisconsin is -3 in Minneapolis when they were -7 in Madison in mid-January, likely overvalued after one great performance against a bad team yesterday, when the overall trajectory of these teams since the late meeting has been in completely different directions.