Free Pick | NCAA | Friday | Jan. 24

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#876 Bowling Green +3 over Toledo 5:00 PM CT

Bowling Green is just 2-4 in MAC play but they have already faced Akron and Miami, two of the top contenders in the conference that are a combined 12-0 in league games. The 7-11 overall record for Todd Simon’s Falcons does include four home losses but this is a solid defensive team that has held MAC foes to just 30 percent 3-point shooting and can create turnovers at a high rate. This was a 20-win team that went 10-8 in the MAC last season in Simon’s first season with the program after a nice run at Southern Utah and the roster doesn’t look measurably worse this season, as this could be a play-on team in a favorable upcoming stretch of the MAC schedule. Toledo is 4-2 in MAC play but the Rockets are 0-2 vs. quality teams, only beating the three Michigan directional schools plus Ball State. Three of those four wins came by slim margins of six or fewer points as a few possessions could have shifted the trajectory for the Rockets considerably. Toledo is one of the worst defensive teams in the nation, let alone the MAC, where the Rockets grade 11th out of 12 teams in defensive efficiency. Toledo was also a 20-win team last season going 14-4 in the MAC, but the defensive and offensive numbers have dropped considerably so far this season for veteran head coach Tod Kowalczyk. This year’s team currently has the worst defensive rating of any of his Toledo teams in now his 15th season with the Rockets. Bowling Green won by eight hosting Toledo last February to snap a five-game slide in this series and in a recent shared opponent game hosting Eastern Michigan, there was only a three-point difference in the home favorite spreads, yet tonight’s line implies a much bigger gap than three points with Toledo as the road favorite of three points. That price doesn’t sync with what these teams have accomplished this season, and the Falcons should be a threat for a minor upset Friday.