Free Pick | NBA | Tuesday | Dec. 3

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#507 Indiana Pacers -2.5 over Toronto Raptors 6:40 PM CT

Since 2021 road favorites off back-to-back S/U losses are 97-46 S/U with a winning ATS record and historically this angle is particularly effective if the host is coming off a win. The Raptors are just 6-15 S/U this season through numerous early season injury challenges but quietly is 4-3 in the past seven games including holding off Miami 119-116 on Sunday. That was a quick revenge game from losing Friday in Miami by 10 points, however. Toronto did beat Indiana at home in mid-November 130-119, but it was an outlier shooting game with the Raptors hitting nearly 59 percent for the game and over 48 percent from 3-point range with big games from RJ Barrett and Jakob Poeltl. The Pacers haven’t been a good road team this season at 2-9 S/U but six of those losses were against teams that would be considered quality playoff threats. Indiana has allowed 130 and 136 in the past two games as this should be a focused team ready to get back on track as Pascal Siakam returns to Toronto. The Pacers had won three in a row in Toronto before the loss two weeks ago and both teams will be missing contributors tonight. The Pacers are an elite offensive team with a top five field goal rate and the Pacers have already played nine games vs. the league’s top 10 teams, posting four wins, while Toronto is 0-6 in such games. Toronto is 5-4 S/U at home this season including three straight wins vs. decent competition but this is a discounted price on the Pacers in a critical spot to avoid a third loss in a row ahead of a road-heavy December schedule. Both teams are 0-3 in Group B play as neither team is advancing in the NBA in-season tournament.