Free Pick | NBA | Thursday | April 3

Nelly’s is 6-0-1 in our last seven basketball picks – get our NBA Knockout tonight!

#556 Miami Heat +5.5 over Memphis Grizzlies 6:30 PM CT

While this seems like a dangerous spot for the Heat after Miami stunned the Celtics last night, NBA home underdogs coming off a road upset win as an underdog of 10 or more points and playing without a rest day have fared well, covering at a nearly 67% clip since 2010. Despite Andrew Wiggins and Duncan Robinson being on the shelf, Miami has delivered one of its best stretches of the season with six straight wins to bounce back from the 10-game slide in March. The Heat have displayed terrific defense on the winning streak, allowing just over 99 points per game as well as Miami looks to improve its position with a tight race for the 7-10 spots in the Eastern Conference standings.  Once looking like a contender, Memphis has fallen to the #8 position in the Western Conference. Further losses won’t change that position as the Grizzlies will finish no worse than #8 but the Grizzlies remain in play to climb higher with four teams separated by a half-game in the 5-8 positions. Memphis on a four-game slide doesn’t look like a team that will finish strong however with four of the final six on the road and losses in seven of the past eight games, only beating Utah since mid-March and still working through the stunning decision to fire Taylor Jenkins just a few weeks before the playoffs. Memphis beat Miami on March 15 with a 125-91 home win as a 5.5-point favorite and the Grizzlies are now similarly priced in Miami even with the contrasting recent form of these teams.