Free Pick | NBA | Saturday | April 26

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#564 Memphis Grizzlies +15.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder 2:30 PM CT

In the first round of the playoffs historically, teams that fall behind 0-3 don’t typically fare that well ATS in Game 4, but none of those teams has ever been this size of an underdog as Memphis is going to be one of the largest home underdogs in NBA playoff history. The Grizzlies don’t have a realistic chance to get back into this series and Ja Morant won’t be playing on Saturday, but Memphis competed well in a very competitive Game 3 despite the late collapse. The Thunder are just 2-3-1 ATS this season as a road favorite of 14 or more points with those games coming against some of the very worst teams in the NBA, not playoff teams. This is still a capable Grizzlies offense and while the Thunder will want to wrap up the series today, there won’t be an incentive to put too much strain on key players with bigger games on the horizon and a healthy cushion to work with in this series. Morant has only played 64 games in the past two seasons combined in the regular season and in this playoff run, as the Grizzlies have still competed well in many stretches without him, and this is an extreme adjustment from the Game 3 price.