Free Pick | MLB | Wednesday | Oct. 9

Nelly’s is 3-1 in our last four MLB playoff picks!

#911/912 UNDER 8 Los Angeles Dodgers (Brasier) at San Diego Padres (Cease) 8:08 PM CT

All three games in this series have played ‘over’ but last night 11 runs came on only 13 combined hits. There were only seven at-bats with runners in scoring position last night despite the higher scoring as Los Angeles and San Diego combined to hit .571 in those at-bats. Both starters cleared five innings despite giving up early runs and the bullpens combined to allow just one hit and no runs. Petco Park remains one of the better pitching ballparks in baseball and the conditions should be calm and cool tonight with a slight wind in from left field in contrast to the favorable hitting conditions in Los Angeles for the first two games of the series while last night the wind was shifted outward. San Diego home games averaged 8.7 runs per game this season but there were a few outlier outcomes that boost the numbers, likewise the regular season series between these teams averaging over 9.0 runs per game is inflated by 33 runs scored in the two games in South Korea, the games stateside between these teams in the regular season averaged just 7.7 runs per games. Dylan Cease remains a high-ceiling option on the mound with big strikeout potential and a 3.03 ERA in San Diego this season, and a 2.97 ERA in September. He was hit hard in Game 1 allowing five runs with a three-run home allowed in the 2nd inning, but he made two strong starts vs. the Dodgers in the regular season and will likely pitch better back at home. Rookie Landon Knack could get the start for the Dodgers tonight and in a small sample he has looked the part of a quality MLB pitcher. Knack in 27 and was a 2nd round pick in 2020 as he is more experienced than a typical rookie. The Padres did get four runs on him in a September start, but he should be capable of providing a solid first lap through the lineup for Los Angeles before turning things over to a bullpen that needed only 36 pitches last night.