Free Pick | MLB | Wednesday | April 9

Nelly’s is 2-1 in our last three MLB picks while winning in basketball Monday and Tuesday to start the week!

#977/978 OVER 10 San Diego Padres at (Sacramento) Athletics 2:35 PM CT

Sutter Health Park in Sacramento has averaged 13.4 runs per game this season. Last night’s 10-4 win over the Padres was the first home win for the Athletics, and there were 24 hits and 14 runs even with two quality starters on the mound. Dylan Cease has been one of the best pitchers in baseball in the past few seasons and he allowed nine runs last night, completing only four innings. Randy Vasquez has one of the lowest strikeout rates of any regular starter in MLB, 6.2 K/9 for his career and just 4.2 this season. His FIP is 4.66 this season despite a 1.69 ERA in two starts. Osvaldo Bido also has a FIP well above his ERA in the small early season sample and while Bido offered promise on the mound for the Athletics last season, he has struggled with walks. San Diego has scored 55 runs in 12 games this season even with seven games at Petco Park, typically one of the best pitching parks in MLB. Despite the contrasting record and projection, the Athletics have scored 55 runs in 12 games as well this season despite fewer big names in the lineup. The Athletics have had some of the worst bullpen results in baseball so far this season and while the total has been adjusted upward for this afternoon’s game after the ‘over’ has gone 5-0 in Sacramento so far this season, higher scoring potential remains present in the third game of this series.