Free Pick | MLB | Tuesday | July 9

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#955 Washington Nationals (Irvin) +115 over New York Mets (Quintana) 6:10 PM CT

Washington has deserved better in several recent games with a few untimely defensive miscues on the field and many missed opportunities at the plate. The Nationals have scored six or more runs five times in the past 10 games despite being just 4-6 and Jake Irvin has been the team’s most reliable starter, posting a 2.80 ERA in 18 starts. Irvin has a K/9 below 8.0 and his FIP is more than a half-run higher than his ERA, but his recent road form has been outstanding with five straight quality starts since late May. He threw eight shutout innings against the Mets at home in his last start on Thursday and gets that matchup again tonight at Citi Field. New York has lost four of the past six games with the offense held to five or fewer runs in each of those six games. Both teams have had challenges in the bullpen, but the Mets have a horrific 9.71 bullpen ERA with a 1.96 WHIP in the past 10 games. That will put some pressure on veteran Jose Quintana, who owns a 4.88 FIP this season and a 6.6 K/9 for mediocre results despite providing innings with 17 starting efforts. Quintana did pitch well matched up with Irvin last week and Washington hasn’t been as effective at the plate vs. left-handers, but Washington is 13-11 vs. left-handed starters for the season. These teams look pretty similar right now next to each other in the NL East standings, but the mound edge should be with the visiting Nationals on Tuesday night while Washington catches an underdog price coming off a pair of misleading lopsided losses.