Free Pick | MLB | Thursday | Aug. 8

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#951 Milwaukee Brewers (Montas) +120 over Atlanta Braves (Morton) 11:20 AM CT

Frankie Montas hasn’t enjoyed a great season, but he made an acceptable first start with the Brewers last week for a win and 13 times in 20 starts this season he has allowed three or fewer runs. He pitched in Atlanta in late July as he should have some comfort level at Truist Park. The Milwaukee bullpen has been excellent this season and has posted much stronger numbers than Atlanta in recent weeks, with the Braves featuring a 4.54 bullpen ERA with a 1.59 WHIP in the past 10 games. The Braves have lost four in a row and are in danger of being swept at home by Milwaukee, but Charlie Morton hasn’t pitched up to his reputation this season. Morton has a FIP nearly a half-run higher than his ERA while posting his worst K/9 since 2015. Morton has allowed four or more runs five times in his last nine starts and Milwaukee can take the season series with Atlanta with another win today. For the season the heralded Atlanta offense is batting only .232 vs. right-handers with just 4.0 runs per nine, a run worse than Milwaukee averages vs. right-handers. The contrast is even more severe in the past 10 games with Milwaukee scoring 6.0 runs per nine and Atlanta’s average down to 3.9, with a massive difference in batting with the Brewers hitting .281 in that span.