Free Pick | MLB | Thursday | Aug. 29

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#903/904 UNDER 8 San Diego Padres (King) at St. Louis Cardinals (Gray) 1:15 PM CT

Sonny Gray has a 3.34 FIP this season and an 11.1 K/9 as it is difficult to suggest he has been a disappointment for the Cardinals, but he has struggled just when the Cardinals have needed him most with a NL Wild Card spot in reach until the current 10-15 August slide for the team. St. Louis is 1-5 in Gray’s last six starts with his ERA 5.66 in that span. Gray has pitched much better at home, however, with a 2.72 ERA and in this series finale after a tense 4-3 win for the Cardinals Wednesday night, Gray can be counted on for a solid outing. Michael King has been an unexpected star in the rotation for the Padres with a 3.14 ERA and a 10.7 K/9. Since late June he has been one of the most reliable NL starters with a 2.05 ERA and an 11.1 K/9 and San Diego 7-2 in those nine starts. San Diego scored 14 runs in the first two games of this series despite only 18 hits combined in those games for incredibly efficient scoring. The Cardinals hit .500 with runners in scoring position last night in the 4-3 walk-off result. Both teams received solid starting efforts on Wednesday night to keep the bullpens in order and the recent splits for both bullpens have been good with both teams featuring a 10-game WHIP of 1.21 or less and a bullpen ERA below 4.00. San Diego has turned in an amazing 26-10 run since the All-Star break but the offense has cooled a bit in late August with four or fewer runs five times in the past eight games and a team OPS of .739 in the past week, below the season average for the Padres, and while below the .778 team OPS over the past four weeks combined. It will be hot in St. Louis Thursday afternoon, but the humidity is falling, and the wind is calm, blowing in from right field if there is any impact, and a lower-scoring series finale looks likely.