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#907 Cincinnati Reds (Greene) EVEN over St. Louis Cardinals (Lynn) 1:15 PM CT

Hunter Greene is still just 24 years old and while he hasn’t quite reached his potential consistently, he is on pace for a solid season for the Reds. His walk rate remains a concern, but he has limited his home runs allowed this season while still posting a 10.0 K/9. Like most Cincinnati pitchers in recent years, he fares much better away from home, and he owns a 2.59 season ERA in his road innings. Greene did get hit hard in his last start, but he threw six shutout innings in his last road start and has a quality start in four of his last six road outings. Veteran Lance Lynn has a solid season line, but he has allowed three or more runs in four of his five June starts, with only one quality start. His ERA at home is 4.20 even with only four home runs allowed in over 40 innings of work. Cincinnati has won two of three in this series in St. Louis this week and the Reds have been productive in recent weeks, even if the lineup has been a boom-or-bust group, reaching five runs five times in the past 10 games but also shutout twice. St. Louis has been held to four or fewer runs in six straight games and while the Cardinals have a stronger bullpen for the season, the workload in the past few days has been significant. While the Cardinals are 3.5 games above Cincinnati in the standings, Cincinnati is 59 runs stronger than St. Louis in run differential and the upside of Greene is worth more than the consistent mediocrity of Lynn.