Free Pick | MLB | Sunday | July 14

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#913 Kansas City Royals (Singer) +110 over Boston Red Sox (Bello) 12:35 PM CT

A four-game winning streak for the Royals ended on Saturday with a 5-0 loss to Boston, as Seth Lugo had the worst start of his excellent first half of the season. Kansas City and Boston both have 52 wins and are both likely to be players in the wild card race the rest of the season. Kansas City is 18 runs stronger in run differential this season and Boston’s success has mostly come on the road with the Red Sox still a losing team at Fenway Park. Boston’s bullpen has a 5.24 ERA in the past 10 games and key reliever Zack Kelly pitched two innings last night for the Red Sox. Brayan Bello starts for Boston on Sunday and while he is 9-5, his numbers are marginal with a 5.40 ERA with high walk and home run rates. Bellow owns a 6.55 ERA in his home starts and after a good start to the season, Bello has a 6.79 ERA in his last 10 starts since mid-May including allowing four or more runs in each of his past four home starts. Brady Singer is on pace for a career best ERA at 2.93 and his numbers resemble his strong 2022 season before his setback 2023 campaign. Singer has been at his best in recent weeks with a four straight starts without allowing more than one run and on the season, Singer has allowed one or zero earned runs in two thirds of his starts. Kansas City has a 1.29 bullpen ERA in the past five games with a 0.71 WHIP and despite Lugo’s poor start the Royals were able to complete last night’s game with only 39 relief pitches. After going hitless with runners in scoring position last night, a solid Royals offense should be in position to bounce-back in a favorable matchup, looking to even up its wild card position with the Red Sox at the All-Star Break.