Free Pick | MLB | Saturday | May 18

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#970 Cleveland Guardians (Allen) +105 over Minnesota Twins (Ober) 5:10 PM CT

The Twins have a competitive 24-20 record but if you take away games against the two worst teams in the American League, Minnesota is 14-20, as they have gone 10-0 vs. the White Sox and Angels. Minnesota lost a tough first game of this series 3-2 last night following getting swept at home by the Yankees and the offense is struggling with only three combined runs scored on the four-game slide. The Twins were outhit 7-4 last night despite taking an early lead in the game. The Twins are already 0-3 in this critical AL Central season series with Cleveland and with Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis still out of action, the lineup is sorely lacking impact bats. The bullpen had been in strong form earlier this month but Justin Topa and Brock Stewart both recently hit the IL as the recent numbers have soured for Minnesota relievers. Bailey Ober has a 4-1 record with good numbers, but he has a .238 BABIP so far this season, well below his career average and normal expectations. Ober has not pitched as well on the road featuring a 4.67 ERA in 27 innings while more vulnerable to home runs. The Twins have a winning record vs. left-handed starters but this is a team with a .559 team OPS in the past week and for the season the lineup has shown less power vs. left-handers. Logan Allen has a marginal 5.56 ERA this season, but his FIP is much lower, and he has been burned by allowing nine home runs in nine starts this season. A tough outing vs. the Tigers earlier this month skews all his numbers upward, but Allen had a very strong rookie season for the Guardians and pitched well in two starts vs. the Twins in 2023. The advantage in this matchup comes in the bullpen for the Guardians with Cleveland posting elite relief pitching numbers for the season and in recent splits. Both teams used top relievers last night, but the outings were short for Cleveland’s pitchers and the Guardians had Thursday off, while the Twins did not for the staff to be in better shape entering this series. These teams are 36 runs apart in run differential and the Guardians own a 13-6 home record that is the second best in the AL this season, yet Cleveland isn’t commanding the pricing of the AL contender that they appear to be.