Free Pick | MLB | Saturday | May 11

Nelly’s is 3-0 in our last three in the NBA Playoffs while 15-5 in our last 20 baseball selections!

#911/912 UNDER 9 Los Angeles Dodgers (Paxton) at San Diego Padres (Waldron) 7:40 PM CT

Four of six meetings between these teams have featured nine or fewer runs this season with a 26-run game in Korea in March skewing the averages upward. The Padres are hitting just .202 vs. left-handers this season as this should be a favorable draw for James Paxton who may be on his way to an excellent comeback season, already 3-0 with a 3.06 ERA even if his command has been erratic at times. Matt Waldron has pitched better than his 5.82 ERA suggests with a 4.50 FIP and tough luck with 37 percent of his baserunners scoring. He allowed just three hits in five innings against the Dodgers in April and a terrible start in early May in Arizona is weighing heavily on what had been a solid start to the season. The lineup for Los Angeles has cooled off with a .196 team average in the past five games and the Dodgers have been held to five or fewer runs in five of the past nine games. Los Angeles pitching has not allowed more than three runs in any of the past eight games with outstanding bullpen results including a 1.21 ERA in the past 10 games. These rivals combined for only three runs last night with just seven hits combined and lower numbers seem possible again on Saturday.