Free Pick | MLB | Saturday | July 29

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#909 Cincinnati Reds (Weaver) +175 over Los Angeles Dodgers (Sheehan) 8:10 PM CT

Since scoring 27 runs in back-to-backs wins over the Rangers, the Dodgers are just 1-4 with 21 runs scored with the pitching staff now having allowed five or more runs in seven of the past eight games. The Reds won 6-5 last night to open this series with Cincinnati in a curious position at the trade deadline, ahead of schedule at 57-48 and suddenly a serious player in the NL wild card and NL Central division race. Cincinnati 7-2 in the past nine games with great pitching results, allowing three or fewer runs in seven of those games. Veteran Luke Weaver has a brutal 7.20 ERA, but his FIP is more than a run lower than that. Home runs have been the issue for Weaver, particularly in a home ballpark where home runs are common. He has allowed just eight home runs in 44 road innings and in four of his last five starts he has allowed four or fewer runs for slightly better returns. Rookie Emmet Sheehan has some future upside, but he hasn’t looked MLB-ready even while 3-1 in six starts after making the leap right from AA. Sheehan has a 6.75 ERA and a 6.8 K/9 at the MLB level with walks a significant issue so far in his young career. Sheehan has had a low .264 BABIP in his 29+ innings yet has still mostly struggled. If you take away six scoreless innings in his MLB debut, Sheehan owns an 8.49 ERA in his last five starts and he had a terrible outing in his last home start, even against the Pirates. The Dodgers had to use five relievers last night and the price is right to take a chance on the Reds Saturday night as these are only 2.5 games apart in the NL standings.