Free Pick | MLB | Saturday | April 12

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#903 Washington Nationals (Williams) +135 over Miami Marlins (Alcantara) 3:10 PM CT

Sandy Alcantara was the NL Cy Young winner in 2022 but he struggled in 2023 before missing last season to injury. His return this season has been highly anticipated for the Marlins and so far the results have been solid. Alcantara is on pace to have the highest BB/9 he has posted since 2018 however and early in his career his command was an issue. So far, he has benefitted from a .182 BABIP in the small sample size, pitching fewer than 10 innings in two starts, and he has allowed at least two runs in each outing as he doesn’t yet deserve to be commanding this high of a price. Washington has been competitive this season at 6-7 and just -2 in run differential through a difficult schedule, already facing NL contenders Philadelphia, Arizona, and Los Angeles and holding its own. Washington is 5-1 in the past six games after a 7-4 win last night to open this series. Miami had to use four relivers last night as Washington delivered all seven of its runs after the fifth inning. With Alcantara on a limited pitch count in his recovery, a Miami bullpen with a 5.82 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP in the past 10 games will likely be heavily involved in this result. Trevor Williams has been the epitome of a league-average starter, while pitching almost exclusively on bad teams in his career. He was quite good in an abbreviated 2024 season for the Nationals and so far, he has looked like a capable option with a better than 4:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio so far in 10 innings alongside a 3.08 FIP. Williams has a career 3.48 ERA at LoanDepot Park and Washington has now won eight of the past 10 meetings between these teams. With a lineup that has been reliably productive with at least four runs in seven straight games, Washington is an appealing underdog to take another game in this series Saturday.