Free Pick | MLB | Monday | Aug. 7

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#959 Chicago Cubs (Smyly) +110 over New York Mets (Senga) 6:10 PM CT

The Mets are 11-26 vs. left-handed starters this season and New York is back home Monday after going 0-6 on an interleague road trip last week. New York scored a combined total of just 14 runs on the trip in Kansas City and Baltimore while the team is batting .222 with 3.3 runs per nine in the past 10 games. The Cubs are 32-18 in the past 50 games, now four games above .500 on the season and just 1.5 games out of the NL Central lead while posting the third best season run differential in the entire National League. Drew Smyly has average numbers in 22 appearances this season with a 4.71 ERA, but his struggles have been almost exclusively at home where his ERA is 6.26 while his road ERA is just 3.26. Smyly hasn’t been his best in his recent stretch of starts but this should be a favorable matchup in a ballpark where he owns a 2.16 career ERA. Kodai Senga has done his job this season in 20 starts with very solid numbers for the Mets in his first MLB season. Senga has pitched past six innings only three times this season however and the Cubs had some success against him beating him in May at Wrigley Field. The Mets have had a 4.91 bullpen ERA in the past 10 games in contrast to a 2.55 bullpen ERA for the Cubs. Chicago has scored five or more runs seven times in the past nine games and have some momentum after a nice series win over Atlanta. While Senga is capable, this is a Mets team that is 20-34 since early June with limited potential to keep pace with one of the NL’s top lineups.