Free Pick | MLB | Monday | Aug. 26

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#955/956 OVER 10.5 Miami Marlins (Cabrera) at Colorado Rockies (Feltner) 7:40 PM CT

Higher scoring in Denver is well established and Colorado home games have averaged over 10.6 runs per game this season. The Rockies are back home after a 2-4 road trip on the east coast and five of the past six Coors Field games in August have featured at least 10 runs, with an average of 12.2 runs per game. Miami has allowed six or more runs six times in the past 10 games with the Marlins avoiding a winless homestand with a 7-2 win on Sunday against the Cubs. Miami’s bullpen has been working hard with only two six innings starts in the past 10 games and over the past 10 games these bullpens have terrible numbers with a 6.08 ERA for the Marlins and a 5.45 ERA for the Rockies. Edward Cabrera has a 5.40 FIP in 14 starts this season, flashing strikeout potential but at great risk to allow walks and home runs. Cabrera owns an 8.14 road ERA as well. Ryan Feltner has pitched a bit better than his 1-10 record suggests but he has not solved Coors Field with a 6.20 ERA at home this season. Feltner’s numbers have improved in recent weeks but not coincidently, four of his last six starts were on the road as he has pitched only eight innings at home since the All-Star break. Neither offense is reliable, but the conditions Monday should be favorable for offense with a warm night in Denver and the bullpen strain on both sides should lead to late opportunities in what could be a back-and-forth affair.

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