Free Pick | MLB | June 26 | Wednesday

Nelly’s won Monday’s 7* top play and we’ve been profitable in 7 of the past 9 MLB weeks!

#902 Cincinnati Reds (Ashcraft) -125 over Pittsburgh Pirates (Ortiz) 12:10 PM CT

While the Pirates won 9-5 last night the hit count was nearly even, and Cincinnati had a 15-11 edge in at-bats with runners in scoring position. In the lopsided loss Yosver Zulueta stepped to up fill three innings to save the bullpen and the Reds will look to win this current series and even the season series in an early game Wednesday. Despite trailing Pittsburgh by a game in the NL Central standings, the Reds are 46 runs better than Pittsburgh in run differential. Graham Ashcraft has pitched better than his 5.05 ERA suggests as he has been burned by more than a third of his baserunners scoring this season. In eight of his 12 starts he has allowed three or fewer runs and he was sharp in a two start AAA re-tooling stint earlier this month, now set for his MLB return. Luis Ortiz has a 3.45 ERA this season, but his FIP is a half run higher and in 47 innings his K/9 is just 6.9. Ortiz has not started a game this season but has been stretched out with longer relief outings this month. Some of those have been successful, others have not, as he allowed 10 hits and six runs in four innings in his last appearance. In AAA last season Ortiz had a modest strikeout rate and throughout his minor league and major league career track record, walks have been a big problem. The Pittsburgh bullpen is likely to have a significant impact on this game and that unit it one of the worst in MLB with a 4.81 season ERA and an 8.21 ERA in the past 10 games. Cincinnati’s bullpen has been solid in recent weeks and the Reds should be a threat to bounce- back from last night’s loss with a win at home to start Thursday.