Free Pick | MLB | Friday | May 5

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Free Pick #972 Pittsburgh Pirates (Hill) +125 over Toronto Blue Jays (Bassitt) 5:35 PM CT

Boston beat up the Toronto pitching staff in a four-game sweep as the Blue Jays will enter this series vs. the first place Pirates having lost five in a row while allowing 42 runs. The bullpen numbers have been decent for Toronto with newcomer Chris Bassitt among the starters that are struggling. Bassitt had a strong season for the Mets in 2022 but he has a 5.76 FIP in six starts for Toronto, posting his worst K/9 since 2016. His walk rate is also up to 4.4 BB/9 for a troubling result while Bassitt has allowed six home runs in six starts. Pittsburgh’s staying power as a playoff threat can be doubted with the Pirates entering this series having lost four in a row while unable to top two runs in any of those losses. Pittsburgh is still ahead of Toronto in almost every offensive category this season despite the contrasting projections. Pittsburgh has delivered some of the best relief pitching numbers in baseball and veteran Rich Hill is a capable option on the mound, pitching at least five innings with three or fewer runs allowed in five of his six starts this season. Hill is far from a conventional left-hander as the successful splits for Toronto vs. southpaws are not overly meaningful in this matchup and after surrendering a few home runs early this season Hill has not allowed a home run in his last two starts. Pittsburgh is 9-4 at home and Toronto played the latest game on the schedule yesterday for a more challenging turnaround to start this series, particularly after having to use five relievers in an ugly defeat Thursday. Pittsburgh doesn’t have a great deal of wins vs. top competition but the Blue Jays are just 7-9 vs. winning teams this season. While this line would have been much higher a month ago, this is still a home underdog price on a team with the fourth best record in MLB for a rare opportunity.