Free Pick | MLB | Friday | July 26

Nelly’s is on a 14-4 AL run after a 13-0 win yesterday for a 5-3 run since the All-Star break overall!

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#915/916 UNDER 9.5 New York Yankees (Cortes) at Boston Red Sox (Bello) 6:10 PM CT

This great rivalry series has Boston up 4-2 on the season, though the Yankees are 4.5 games ahead of the Red Sox in the standings. New York is just 2-4 since the All-Star break and the Yankees have scored just 25 runs in those games, held to four or fewer runs in all four losses. Boston had Thursday off and had to be glad to leave Denver. The Red Sox are 1-5 since the All-Star break and the pitching staff has been hit hard, including an ugly 20-7 loss on Wednesday. Now back at home things should improve for a pitching staff that has been quite good on the season. The recent splits can be thrown out facing the Dodgers on the road and then playing three games at Coors Field as Boston’s pitching staff has a 3.99 ERA at Fenway Park for respectable home splits. Brayan Bello has a 5.27 ERA, but his FIP is nearly a run lower than that and for his career he is a nearly 55 percent groundball pitcher. He had a few tough starts in June but has pitched well in recent weeks and for his career August is typically his best month as he could be on the verge of a nice run of outings. Nestor Cortes hasn’t enjoyed the fortune of his great 2022 season, but his ERA is below 4.00. The Rays have had his number this season, but he pitched well against Boston in an early July quality start. His career splits are marginal at Fenway but 9.5 is still a big total for this series, matching the highest of the season between these teams. Boston has not hit left-handers particularly well in recent weeks and the Red Sox are just 13-18 vs. left-handed starters on the season. This is a critical juncture for both teams and a tense start to the series with all high-leverage bullpen options available should keep the scoring in check Friday night. The forecast suggests that the wind will be blowing in and the humidity will be low to reduce the home run threat.