Free Pick | MLB | Friday | July 12

Nelly’s is 2-0 the past two days in MLB with back-to-back MLB wins as we head towards the final series in what has been a profitable first half of the 2024 MLB season.

Check out a rare 7* TOTAL top play for Friday’s schedule from Nelly’s:

#909 Atlanta Braves (Schwellenbach) -115 over San Diego Padres (Vasquez) 8:40 PM CT

Atlanta has taken back-to-back losses, but last night’s shutout defeat ended a run of six consecutive games in which the Braves had scored at least five runs as Atlanta still has plenty of potential at the plate. The Braves will turn to Spencer Schwellenbach tonight and while the rookie has a 5.02 ERA, his FIP is just 3.57. His K/9 is nearly 9.1 with low walk and home run rates as despite making the jump from AA, Schwellenbach has looked the part of a productive MLB starter. After a rough outing at Fenway in his second MLB start, he has put together a solid five-start run with a 3.86 ERA and a 2.99 FIP. San Diego is just 3-6 in the past nine games and losers of four straight heading into this series. The Padres have scored only nine runs total on the losing streak and have been held to three or fewer runs six times in the past nine games. San Diego has a losing home record this season and Randy Vasquez has a 5.15 FIP that is a half-run higher than his 4.66 ERA. Vasquez has a 5.9 K/9 in his 58 innings this season and more alarming is allowing 11 home runs this season. Vasquez has pitched well in his most recent three starts but he has only three quality starts all season long, averaging fewer than five innings per start. He allowed 10 hits when he faced the Braves in May, and San Diego has a significantly worse bullpen than Atlanta this season with an even more pronounced gap in the past 10 games with a 4.79 ERA next to a 1.60 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP for Atlanta relievers. While the season numbers for these young starters may look similar, they are further apart than that appearance with a clear edge to Schewellenbach while the Braves have a far more complete roster and profile of work than the Padres this season.