Free Pick | MLB | Friday | Aug. 9

Nelly’s has a MLB 2-for-1 offer for Friday Night – or consider joining for the rest of August, our best MLB month in 2023!

We’ve have our first NFL preseason release for phone subscribers out for the weekend while Green Sheet Issue #6 went out this week as well!

#921/922 OVER 8 Cleveland Guardians (Cobb) at Minnesota Twins (Varland) 7:10 PM CT (GAME 2)

The Twins and Guardians are playing two games today and Game 2 has some ‘over’ appeal with pitching staffs that could face some innings in the afternoon contest. Minnesota did enjoy an off day Thursday, but the bullpen had an extended workload Wednesday with Joe Ryan leaving the game after only two innings. Minnesota has not had a starting effort of more than five innings in the past four games and it has shown with ugly recent splits for an otherwise decent bullpen. 26-year-old Louis Varland was a useful starter last season but he has struggled in his MLB opportunities in 2024 with two stints with the Twins in April and June, and a 6.58 ERA for the season. Varland has a career HR/9 of 1.95, an extremely high figure, and while it will be cool in Minneapolis tonight, the wind is expected to be fairly strong pushing to right center. Alex Cobb was acquired by Cleveland at the trade deadline and this is expected to be his first start with the team. It will Cobb’s first start of the season for an unusual trade deadline pickup as he has been on the IL for the Giants all season with a shoulder issue. Cobb has been a serviceable starter for the Giants the past two seasons, but his career track record is mixed and it isn’t clear how long he might be asked to pitch in his debut. Cleveland has an amazing bullpen, but the team relief ERA is up to 4.30 in the past 10 games. The Guardians were off Thursday but faced a double header on Wednesday as the unit has been worked hard in August with no starting effort longer than five innings in the past six games. Cleveland enters this huge series on a five-game slide while six of the team’s past seven games have all totaled 10 or more runs. Given that neither starter has pitched at the MLB level in the past month and that key relievers from strained bullpens could be needed in Game 1, jumping in on the ‘over’ at this price for Game 2 even while blind to the Game 1 result is a worthy look.