Free Pick | MLB | Friday | Aug. 2

Nelly’s started August 2024 with a winner last night – we went 30-20, picking up over 60* in August 2023!

Nelly’s is 10-7 since the All-Star Break including 6-3 in totals – while riding a 14-6 American League run!

Don’t miss tonight’s AL Total Delivery – or join for the rest of the month!

#967/968 UNDER 9 Baltimore Orioles (Kremer) at Cleveland Guardians (Carrasco) 6:10 PM CT

Cleveland exploded for 10 runs last night but they got there with only 11 hits, batting .500 with runners in scoring position and getting two two-out 3-run home runs for incredibly efficient scoring results. Dean Kremer and Carlos Carrasco have been mediocre starters this season, but Kremer’s abbreviated season appears to be heading in the right direction with three solid outings in a row after working his way back from missing about six weeks on the IL. Carrasco has pitched better than his 5.68 ERA suggests with a much lower FIP on the season. He has allowed three or fewer runs in five of his last seven starts and six or fewer hits in six of his last seven starts. Cleveland has only scored 3.6 runs per nine vs. right-handers in the past 10 games as most of the damage last night came against left-handed Trevor Rogers. Baltimore has scored four or fewer runs five times in the past 10 games and in the last month the Orioles have fallen short of the team’s season offensive splits. Five of the past eight meetings between these teams going back to last September have featured seven or fewer runs and the bullpen for the Guardians remains one of the best units in baseball. Baltimore’s bullpen has been marginal in recent weeks, but the team did get six-inning starting efforts Tuesday and Wednesday this week and the pitching staff was bolstered at the trade deadline as the expectation should be for improved relief pitching numbers for the Orioles in August, even if it didn’t show last night with Cleveland’s efficient scoring night. Nine is still a big number to reach for teams that have been uneven at the plate since the All-Star break and in the second game of this potential playoff matchup, a tense lower-scoring outing with optimized pitching changes could be in order.