Free Pick | MLB | Friday | April 18

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#921 Minnesota Twins (Paddack) +130 over Atlanta Braves (Elder) 6:15 PM CT

Bryce Elder had a great 2023 season for the Braves, but he struggled in making just 10 starts for Atlanta in 2024. So far this season he has contributed to the disappointing start for the team with a 7.20 ERA in two starts, with both games losses for the Braves. This will be Elder’s first home start of the season, but he had a 7.99 ERA at Truist Park last season. Atlanta and Minnesota are both losing teams right now, but the Twins have a bit of positive momentum with wins in three of the past four and the offense finally showing some life. Chris Paddack had a nightmare season debut in late March, but he has pitched well in his last two starts despite the ugly season line. Paddack has been quite good for the Twins when healthy and he owns a 1.64 career ERA vs. the Braves. Atlanta pitching has allowed four or more runs in eight of the past 10 games and 13 of 18 games this season. Minnesota has featured a strong bullpen this season despite the losing record and the Twins have a 0.98 WHIP from relievers in the past five games with opponents batting just .194. The Twins have also scored nearly a full run per game more than Atlanta this season in matchups vs. right-handers. Atlanta is 3-12 vs. right-handed starters this season while Minnesota is a more respectable 7-10. Atlanta has been held to three or fewer runs 11 times this season and Paddack and the strong relief corps for the Twins have a good shot to keep the Atlanta lineup in check to have a reasonable case for an upset to start this series.