Free Pick | MLB | Aug. 10 2022

#953 Washington Nationals (Gray) +160 over Chicago Cubs (Steele) 1:20 PM CT

Washington won 6-5 yesterday in Chicago and the Nationals have reached at least five runs in four of the past eight games. On the season the Nationals have scored 4.3 runs per nine vs. left-handers and in the past 10 games the Nationals have hit .289 with 5.8 runs per nine vs. left-handers. Justin Steele has a solid 3.67 ERA for the Cubs, but Chicago is 8-12 in his starts. His WHIP is 1.41 and he has averaged fewer than five innings per start. Steele has just a 25.5 percent CSW% and while his ERA is 0.00 in his last two starts, he pitched fewer than nine combined innings in those starts and allowed nine hits and four unearned runs. Josiah Gray remains a high-ceiling option on the mound with a 10.4 K/9 this season. Home runs have been his downfall with 28 allowed in 20 starts but Chicago is not a great home run hitting team and the conditions at Wrigley Field today should favor the pitchers with a slight wind in from center field and relatively low humidity. Chicago had failed to top four runs in eight straight games prior to this series and while the Washington bullpen is unreliable, this pricing is favorable for Washington in a relatively meaningless late season game between teams that have mailed it in. The Cubs are only 23-34 at home this season despite drawing a huge price tonight with Steele’s misleading numbers.

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