Free Pick | Friday | NCAA | Dec. 20

#884 Cincinnati -3.5 over Dayton 8:30 PM CT

Dayton had a great week last week upsetting Marquette last weekend and then beating UNLV on Tuesday. Both games were at home and UNLV isn’t at the level it has typically been in recent years, even so the Flyers won that game by just one point with comeback from down four in the final minute. The win over Marquette came following Marquette’s huge home win over Wisconsin in a clear letdown spot for the Golden Eagles as well. Dayton also has a win over Connecticut this season but that was a third game in three days with the Huskies playing an overtime game and a one-point game in the prior two days. Dayton was also off back-to-back losses in that game and came up with the win with its back against the wall after two respectable losses. This isn’t technically a true road game as Cincinnati is hosting this game at the Heritage Bank Center instead of Fifth Third Arena, but it will be the closest thing to a road game that the Flyers have faced all season having gone 9-0 at home and 1-2 in neutral site games this season, all in Hawaii. Cincinnati is 6-0 at home and while there haven’t been any high-end results the defensive numbers have been excellent, and the Bearcats have two major conference wins and two road wins. Both teams play at a slow pace, but the turnover count is likely to favor Cincinnati in this game, as is offensive rebounding as a few extra chances seem likely to go in favor of Cincinnati. Dayton won 82-68 in this building last season as this will be a circled opportunity for Wes Miller’s team, coming off a 22-win season in 2024 but struggling in Big XII play and unable to make the NCAA Tournament. Dayton is 8-3 ATS this season and will garner support with high-profile wins in recent weeks, but this is an untested team away from home and Cincinnati should have the potential for one of its best performances of the season.