Free MLB Selection | Tuesday | May 16

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Free Pick Tuesday: #916 Chicago White Sox (Lynn) +110 over Cleveland Guardians (Bieber) 7:10 PM CT

Shane Bieber can carry the Guardians but the recent offensive numbers for Cleveland are quite poor. Cleveland is last in MLB this season in OPS while averaging only 3.5 runs per game. The numbers are worse lately with just 3.0 runs per nine the past 10 games while batting .224. Chicago has seen its offense pick up the pace of late, averaging 4.6 runs per nine in the past 10 games. The White Sox have scored at least three runs in eight of the past 10 games and Lance Lynn is pitching better than his 7.51 ERA suggests. Lynn has a 5.31 FIP and an excellent K/9 of nearly 11.0. He has been burned by 11 home runs this season but also has rarely pitched at home with five of eight starts on the road. Lynn has been a slow starter much of his career but owns a 3.27 career ERA in May and can be counted on to beat his current season averages by a significant margin. Bieber is on pace for a career worst K/9 at just 6.8 and his FIP of 3.62 is more than a run higher than his ERA as Bieber has been a clear overachiever in 2023 so far. He has stranded 82 percent of his base runners while holding foes to a .267 BABIP which would be a career low. His numbers have been slightly worse on the road, and he has allowed a lot of hits in recent starts as he looks like a risky option at this valuation. Cleveland has a good bullpen, but Chicago’s relief numbers have been improving since a tough first two weeks of the season and the White Sox may be worth a look as a home underdog for a contrarian opportunity Tuesday.