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Free Pick Saturday

#368 Washington +3 over Oregon 2:30 PM CT

Oregon won a thriller last season at home in this matchup, getting six in overtime for an upset of then #7 Washington. At 5-1 the Ducks looked headed for the Pac-12 title last season but they lost three of the next four. Washington only has two S/U wins and three ATS wins in the past 15 meetings since 2004 but the Huskies are a very serious threat this week to spoil any remaining national hopes for Oregon, while potentially opening back up the Pac-12 North race. Both teams won convincingly last week ahead of this big matchup that could again play a major role in the Pac-12 North race. Oregon had a closer game with Colorado than it looked Friday with a couple of a huge swing plays before halftime while Washington caught some turnover breaks to pull away in Tucson, but still is one of the best two-loss teams there is. The Ducks are often good for an occasional blowout to pad the stats but in closely-lined games Oregon is on a 5-13-1 ATS run since 2016 in games with a spread between +7 and -7. Mario Cristobal doesn’t have nearly the credentials of Chris Petersen who hasn’t been a home underdog since his first season at Washington in 2014 while the Huskies are 22-2 S/U at home since 2016. Had this line pushed to +3.5 it likely would have made our card but Washington is still worth a look as Saturday’s Free Play.

Nelly’s has a rare 3* top play today (53-35 run), Bobby Dalton has a 15* Best Bet, Point Train an early 6-unit Total, Big E has his next 20* Conference GOY, while Maximum has a big 8pack today!

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Free NCAA Pick Saturday

#347 Oregon State +6 over UCLA 8:00 PM CT

Oregon State has clearly made a lot of progress to close the gap in the Pac-12 but ultimately three competitive losses vs. quality teams still add up to 1-3. The Beavers made a great late rally hosting Stanford last week and this game will be another winnable opportunity vs. a struggling UCLA game off back-to-back close finishes to start the conference season. Surprisingly Oregon State has won two of the past four visits to the Rose Bowl while UCLA is on an 8-16 ATS run as a home favorite since 2014.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson was injured last week late in a productive showing after a leg injury, replaced by sophomore Austin Burton who did give the Bruins a chance at tying field goal on the final drive. A big edge in the rushing potential certainly looks possible for the road underdog, averaging 5.3 yards per carry compared to only 2.7 for UCLA, 119th nationally. This line immediately fell from an opener of +8.5 to take it off our radar as a rated pick but the Beavers are still worth a look as Saturday’s free pick with another competitive effort in store.

Nelly’s has 2/3 offers in both NCAA & NFL action for this weekend – $25 each. We’ve won our NFL 2/3 three consecutive weeks, hitting 67% on the season in pro football while 7-1 in NFL 2* side plays!

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Free NFL Pick Sunday

#259 Oakland Raiders +6.5 over Indianapolis Colts 12:00 PM CT

This is game two of an outrageous stretch of five consecutive away games for the Raiders. While no one is laughing at the handling of the Antonio Brown situation anymore a promising season debut has turned to 1-2 for Oakland. The Colts pieced together a second straight win but every game has been tight. These teams look awfully similar statistically despite the Raiders having to play Kansas City and Minnesota already. Indianapolis was out-gained last week hosting Atlanta, while worse than foes in yards per carry and yards per attempt despite being 2-1. NFL home favorites of four or more points are 6-15-1 ATS this season as the points are appealing though with this number sliding below 7 it stands as just a free pick.

Nelly’s is 5-1 the past two weeks in the NFL and 6-0 in 2* side plays in pro football – Get two 2* picks in our 2/3 offer today for $25.

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Nelly’s Free NCAA Pick

#182 Liberty -7 over New Mexico 5:00 PM CT

Liberty is 6-2 S/U at home since the start of last season as the young FBS program hasn’t been content to just be invited to the stage. They beat 2018 MAC Champion Buffalo earlier this season and the 24-0 loss to Syracuse was a much more competitive game statistically than the numbers suggest. As a young Independent squad Liberty will need seven wins to be considered for a bowl game as they play two FCS games and this is the stretch of the schedule where they need to compile wins as there are a few difficult late season games on the path for a squad sitting at 2-2.

New Mexico has faced Notre Dame and rival New Mexico State in the past two games, hanging on narrowly last week 55-52 to hold off a late comeback to reach 2-1 on the season. Bob Davie is expected back on the sidelines this week after missing the past two games with a health situation and this year’s team is much more balanced than the past rush-heavy Lobos squads. Tevaka Tuioti has thrown for nearly 500 yards but on just 54 percent completions however for the Lobos. Normally underdogs with a potential rushing edge are appealing play-on teams but New Mexico is facing cross-country travel for his contest and last season they lost at home 52-43 in this matchup despite a 211-96 edge on the ground.

New Mexico has had the rushing edge in all three games this season but is just 1-2 ATS with the lone win narrowly covering while getting out-gained overall by a FCS squad. Liberty has put up big passing numbers behind senior QB Stephen Calvert with 8.9 yards per pass attempt and the New Mexico defense ranks 127th out of 130 teams nationally in allowing 10.4 yards per pass attempt, while allowing 7.2 yards per play on the season as the Lobos aren’t catching enough points with one of the nation’s worst defenses, playing far from home after two of the bigger games of the season on the schedule.

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Free NCAA Pick Saturday

#365 Appalachian State +2.5 over North Carolina 2:30 PM CT

The Tar Heels weren’t far from a third straight underdog comeback win as they rallied from a 21-0 deficit and had the ball late down six last week in prime time vs. Wake Forest. That was following stunning wins over South Carolina and Miami in the first two weeks. The Tar Heels could continue a run of competitive exciting games with a suspect defense and an erratic young offense but laying points may be discouraged with Mack Brown’s squad.

Appalachian State has impressed on offense with 98 points in two weeks as Eliah Drinkwitz is living up to his billing as a great offensive coach in the making. Getting a chance to face the Tar Heels for the first time in many years will be alluring, especially off a bye week. This was a circled game for us several weeks ago but the projected spread of +8.5 did not become reality and the oddsmakers clearly marked their ground on this game with an opener of only +4.5. Now down to only +2.5 the Mountaineers are still certainly the preference but not more than a Free Play recommendation.

Nelly’s had a huge weekend last week going 3-0-1 Saturday and 3-0 Sunday for huge gains. It has been a great September so far and this week we have our first 3* Top Play of the season plus college and pro 2/3 offers.

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Free NCAA Pick Saturday

#161 North Texas +14.5 over California 3:15 PM CT

The win could deserve an asterisk with an over two-hour delay in the late night time slot Saturday but California narrowly edged Washington for a second straight season. Justin Wilcox has never not started 2-0 for California but there has been inconsistency after that but the Bears are now one of only two 2-0 teams in the Pac-12 North and neither is one of three teams that most expected to be in the top half of the group.

Cal has a great defense but like last season, it was a fortunate result vs. the Huskies with the Bears getting turnover help and winning on a late kick despite struggling on offense. Coming off a blowout loss North Texas could present some promise in this matchup as Mason Fine is a proven quarterback and the Bears will host an ESPN game next Friday as the letdown risk is high in Berkeley.

California is on a 22-29-1 ATS run as a favorite since 2009 and the Bears are on a 2-5-1 ATS run in home games since the start of last season, averaging only 18.9 points per game vs. FBS competition at home. North Texas has won S/U in six of the past 10 road games and this will be the second biggest underdog spread for the Mean Green since the start of the 2017 season. North Texas beat Arkansas on the road last season and played competitively at Iowa two years ago as they have been able to play up.

Check out Nelly’s College Football 2/3 featuring a pair of major conference 2* picks today!

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Point Train Free Pick

#317 Syracuse +1.5 over Maryland 11:00 AM CT

This is rare game with both teams coming off shutout wins. While Maryland scored more than three times as many points as Syracuse in its shutout win last week, they did so vs. FCS Howard, a team that won four games last season and also lost by 40 to Kent State last year. Shutting out Liberty might not sound impressive, but the Flames won six games last season and are an FBS squad that has quickly risen to a respectable level, bringing back a veteran quarterback with great experience on both sides of the ball. Liberty is playing an independent schedule but will be a threat to make the program’s first bowl game by season’s end. Tommy DeVito has big shoes to fill replacing Eric Dungey but he played in six games last season including leading wins over North Carolina and Florida State when he was a freshman. DeVito didn’t play well in the opener but the Orange running game provided three touchdowns and nearly 200 yards and Syracuse is poised to have its best defense in many years. The Orange held Liberty to negative rushing yards and held senior quarterback Steven Calvert to one of his worst career games. Syracuse has a season-making game with Clemson up next, a team they beat two years ago in the Carrier Dome and had on the ropes last season. That has led many to flock to Maryland this week but in six years as an ACC team Syracuse is 5-1 S/U in the game prior to facing Clemson. Mike Locksley is 1-0 at Maryland but his career 4-31 record as a head coach Is hard to ignore, even with this spread flipping after Syracuse opened as a slight favorite. Josh Jackson is two years removed form his fine 2017 season at Virginia Tech and Maryland lost three home games last season while allowing 29 points per game overall. Last week’s shutout was certainly looks likely to be the only zero that the Maryland defense will put up this season returning the fifth least experience in the Big Ten. Syracuse was unquestionably the second best team in the ACC last season yet the team is getting minimal respect coming off a 10-win season and with Dino Babers 56-35 in his career, quickly providing success at three programs.

Point Train was a winner with the UNDER last night in the NFL opener, an convincing 10-3 result! Another TOTAL is lined up on the Friday college football schedule for $19.97 – pay after you win!

Point Train’s first 5-unit pick of the season is also on its way for Saturday night in a big prime time TV game!

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Free NCAA Pick Saturday

#202 Vanderbilt +22.5 over Georgia 6:30 PM CT

Everyone assumes Georgia is going to be a top national contender this season yet they face a much smaller opening week price than some of the other top ranked teams. Being on the road for a SEC game to start the year certainly warrants a lower figure but it also isn’t clear that Georgia will be able to replenish the roster after losing a great deal of major contributors from the roster. Jake Fromm is back leading the offense but none of his top five receivers from last season will be there. The front seven on defense will also be tested. Georgia will be good enough in the running game to pull away from foes but modest scoring relative to the other top national contenders again looks likely. Vanderbilt must replace solid quarterback Kyle Shurmur but they have options to do so including transfer Riley Neal from Ball State. A Commodores defense that had the worst yardage numbers of Derek Mason’s five seasons has the potential to show improvement and in great contrast to Georgia the offense for Vanderbilt is one of the most experienced groups in the SEC, while Georgia ranks 14th in the conference in returning experience on offense even with Fromm. Last year’s game wasn’t as close as the final as Vanderbilt scored a touchdown in the final seconds to only lose by 28 but counting on Georgia to post a big score is wishful thinking even if they dominate the trenches. Vanderbilt has won convincingly as just a slight favorite in the season opener the past two seasons as Mason has had his team ready to go in Week 1 and the Bulldogs have covered in just one of the past four trips to Nashville. Vanderbilt was a lesser underdog hosting eventual national champion Alabama in 2017 while nearly a full touchdown less of an underdog hosting national runner-up Georgia that season. This will be the biggest home underdog spread for Vanderbilt since 2014 and Vanderbilt is on a 6-1-1 ATS run as a home underdog of at least 20 points but fewer than 30 points going back to 1994.

This line shot up from 21 to 22 and 22.5 and has simply sat there despite overwhelming action on the favorite as the oddsmakers seem happy to take in well over 80 percent of the action on the hefty road favorite. Week 1 road favorites of 20 or more points are on a 4-12 ATS run since 2010 with Georgia now the only team fitting that role with the Notre Dame line slipping downward.

Nelly’s started our college football season 1-0 Friday night – check out Saturday’s NCAA 2/3 with three night games!

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Free Point Train Pick

Saturday #211 New Mexico State +31.5 @ Washington State 10:00 PM Eastern

If you’ve dealt with us in the past you know we prefer ‘ugly’ teams over the media darlings. With that said, we like New Mexico State plus the points over Washington State. Last season the Cougars were 11-2 ATS and have a two-year record of 18-8 ATS at the betting window. That success doesn’t go un-noticed by the oddsmakers so there is an immediate correction in the opening numbers this season. Conversely, the Aggies were a dismal 2-9-1 ATS last season and cost anyone that bet them on a regular basis a lot of money last season. WSU had the best spread record in college football last year, but fifteen teams had a better average margin of victory than the Cougs. Washington State had a decent average margin of victory of +14.2PPG last year, but it came against the 50th ranked schedule.

Washington State had just two wins last year that were by more than the spread on their opener this season. New Mexico State struggled last season with a 2-9-1 spread record, but their average loss margin was 16.1PPG and they only lost by 34 or more points three times. New Mexico State returns 30 letter winners with 8 starters on offense back and 6 defensive starters. Two years ago, this team was 7-6 SU with a Bowl Win to end their season. The Aggies had a negative point differential of just -.4PPG and an offense that was 45th in the nation in yards per play at +5.7, while averaging 29.3PPG. With experience back at quarterback, a solid O-line along with plenty of depth defensively this Doug Martin coached team will be much better than they were a season ago. Washington State does return a bevy of talent from last year’s team with 39 lettermen, 7 offensive starters and 6 defensive starters but they are clearly over-priced here. Our computer analytics on this game have the Cougars favored by 26.9-points. We take the pooch and the points! Bet on New Mexico State!

2018 Best ATS teams in college football: Washington State 11-2, Utah State 10-3, Florida International 10-3, Syracuse 9-3-1, Troy 9-3-1, Fresno State 10-4, UAB 10-4

2018 Worst ATS teams in college football: Michigan St 4-9, Wisconsin 4-9, North Texas 4-9, W Michigan 4-9, S Florida 4-9, Mississippi 3-9, San Diego St 3-10, Georgia State 2-9-1, N Mexico St 2-9-1, UConn 2-9-1, Louisville 1-11

Point Train is off to a 3-1 start to the football season and has two big plays ready to go for Saturday’s schedule!

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Free Pick Thursday

1st Half: #139 Texas State +20.5 over Texas A&M 7:30 PM CT

Jimbo Fisher will be looking to get to 1-0 without a major exertion this week knowing that a season-making game with Clemson is on deck. Texas State was 3-9 in 2018 but actually only allowed six first quarter offensive touchdowns all season. This the most experienced team in the Sun Belt and Jake Spatival will bring a more aggressive approach to the offense, going back to a campus where he was an assistant for three years earlier in his career.

Expect the potential for a big play or two from the Bobcats early in this contest while Texas A&M will hope to offer conventional looks and play-calling to leave the top ranked Tigers will little meaningful film to dissect this week. The halftime spread priced just below the three touchdown threshold is certainly intentional and presumably enticing for many in a matchup where the Bobcats aren’t likely to draw a lot of support.

While at Florida State Jimbo Fisher beat Texas State 59-16 to open the 2015 season but it was only 21-10 at halftime and Fisher is just 2-4 ATS in home openers the past six years with last year’s win coming against FCS competition.