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Free NCAA Pick Saturday

#161 North Texas +14.5 over California 3:15 PM CT

The win could deserve an asterisk with an over two-hour delay in the late night time slot Saturday but California narrowly edged Washington for a second straight season. Justin Wilcox has never not started 2-0 for California but there has been inconsistency after that but the Bears are now one of only two 2-0 teams in the Pac-12 North and neither is one of three teams that most expected to be in the top half of the group.

Cal has a great defense but like last season, it was a fortunate result vs. the Huskies with the Bears getting turnover help and winning on a late kick despite struggling on offense. Coming off a blowout loss North Texas could present some promise in this matchup as Mason Fine is a proven quarterback and the Bears will host an ESPN game next Friday as the letdown risk is high in Berkeley.

California is on a 22-29-1 ATS run as a favorite since 2009 and the Bears are on a 2-5-1 ATS run in home games since the start of last season, averaging only 18.9 points per game vs. FBS competition at home. North Texas has won S/U in six of the past 10 road games and this will be the second biggest underdog spread for the Mean Green since the start of the 2017 season. North Texas beat Arkansas on the road last season and played competitively at Iowa two years ago as they have been able to play up.

Check out Nelly’s College Football 2/3 featuring a pair of major conference 2* picks today!

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Point Train Free Pick

#317 Syracuse +1.5 over Maryland 11:00 AM CT

This is rare game with both teams coming off shutout wins. While Maryland scored more than three times as many points as Syracuse in its shutout win last week, they did so vs. FCS Howard, a team that won four games last season and also lost by 40 to Kent State last year. Shutting out Liberty might not sound impressive, but the Flames won six games last season and are an FBS squad that has quickly risen to a respectable level, bringing back a veteran quarterback with great experience on both sides of the ball. Liberty is playing an independent schedule but will be a threat to make the program’s first bowl game by season’s end. Tommy DeVito has big shoes to fill replacing Eric Dungey but he played in six games last season including leading wins over North Carolina and Florida State when he was a freshman. DeVito didn’t play well in the opener but the Orange running game provided three touchdowns and nearly 200 yards and Syracuse is poised to have its best defense in many years. The Orange held Liberty to negative rushing yards and held senior quarterback Steven Calvert to one of his worst career games. Syracuse has a season-making game with Clemson up next, a team they beat two years ago in the Carrier Dome and had on the ropes last season. That has led many to flock to Maryland this week but in six years as an ACC team Syracuse is 5-1 S/U in the game prior to facing Clemson. Mike Locksley is 1-0 at Maryland but his career 4-31 record as a head coach Is hard to ignore, even with this spread flipping after Syracuse opened as a slight favorite. Josh Jackson is two years removed form his fine 2017 season at Virginia Tech and Maryland lost three home games last season while allowing 29 points per game overall. Last week’s shutout was certainly looks likely to be the only zero that the Maryland defense will put up this season returning the fifth least experience in the Big Ten. Syracuse was unquestionably the second best team in the ACC last season yet the team is getting minimal respect coming off a 10-win season and with Dino Babers 56-35 in his career, quickly providing success at three programs.

Point Train was a winner with the UNDER last night in the NFL opener, an convincing 10-3 result! Another TOTAL is lined up on the Friday college football schedule for $19.97 – pay after you win!

Point Train’s first 5-unit pick of the season is also on its way for Saturday night in a big prime time TV game!

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Free NCAA Pick Saturday

#202 Vanderbilt +22.5 over Georgia 6:30 PM CT

Everyone assumes Georgia is going to be a top national contender this season yet they face a much smaller opening week price than some of the other top ranked teams. Being on the road for a SEC game to start the year certainly warrants a lower figure but it also isn’t clear that Georgia will be able to replenish the roster after losing a great deal of major contributors from the roster. Jake Fromm is back leading the offense but none of his top five receivers from last season will be there. The front seven on defense will also be tested. Georgia will be good enough in the running game to pull away from foes but modest scoring relative to the other top national contenders again looks likely. Vanderbilt must replace solid quarterback Kyle Shurmur but they have options to do so including transfer Riley Neal from Ball State. A Commodores defense that had the worst yardage numbers of Derek Mason’s five seasons has the potential to show improvement and in great contrast to Georgia the offense for Vanderbilt is one of the most experienced groups in the SEC, while Georgia ranks 14th in the conference in returning experience on offense even with Fromm. Last year’s game wasn’t as close as the final as Vanderbilt scored a touchdown in the final seconds to only lose by 28 but counting on Georgia to post a big score is wishful thinking even if they dominate the trenches. Vanderbilt has won convincingly as just a slight favorite in the season opener the past two seasons as Mason has had his team ready to go in Week 1 and the Bulldogs have covered in just one of the past four trips to Nashville. Vanderbilt was a lesser underdog hosting eventual national champion Alabama in 2017 while nearly a full touchdown less of an underdog hosting national runner-up Georgia that season. This will be the biggest home underdog spread for Vanderbilt since 2014 and Vanderbilt is on a 6-1-1 ATS run as a home underdog of at least 20 points but fewer than 30 points going back to 1994.

This line shot up from 21 to 22 and 22.5 and has simply sat there despite overwhelming action on the favorite as the oddsmakers seem happy to take in well over 80 percent of the action on the hefty road favorite. Week 1 road favorites of 20 or more points are on a 4-12 ATS run since 2010 with Georgia now the only team fitting that role with the Notre Dame line slipping downward.

Nelly’s started our college football season 1-0 Friday night – check out Saturday’s NCAA 2/3 with three night games!

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Free Point Train Pick

Saturday #211 New Mexico State +31.5 @ Washington State 10:00 PM Eastern

If you’ve dealt with us in the past you know we prefer ‘ugly’ teams over the media darlings. With that said, we like New Mexico State plus the points over Washington State. Last season the Cougars were 11-2 ATS and have a two-year record of 18-8 ATS at the betting window. That success doesn’t go un-noticed by the oddsmakers so there is an immediate correction in the opening numbers this season. Conversely, the Aggies were a dismal 2-9-1 ATS last season and cost anyone that bet them on a regular basis a lot of money last season. WSU had the best spread record in college football last year, but fifteen teams had a better average margin of victory than the Cougs. Washington State had a decent average margin of victory of +14.2PPG last year, but it came against the 50th ranked schedule.

Washington State had just two wins last year that were by more than the spread on their opener this season. New Mexico State struggled last season with a 2-9-1 spread record, but their average loss margin was 16.1PPG and they only lost by 34 or more points three times. New Mexico State returns 30 letter winners with 8 starters on offense back and 6 defensive starters. Two years ago, this team was 7-6 SU with a Bowl Win to end their season. The Aggies had a negative point differential of just -.4PPG and an offense that was 45th in the nation in yards per play at +5.7, while averaging 29.3PPG. With experience back at quarterback, a solid O-line along with plenty of depth defensively this Doug Martin coached team will be much better than they were a season ago. Washington State does return a bevy of talent from last year’s team with 39 lettermen, 7 offensive starters and 6 defensive starters but they are clearly over-priced here. Our computer analytics on this game have the Cougars favored by 26.9-points. We take the pooch and the points! Bet on New Mexico State!

2018 Best ATS teams in college football: Washington State 11-2, Utah State 10-3, Florida International 10-3, Syracuse 9-3-1, Troy 9-3-1, Fresno State 10-4, UAB 10-4

2018 Worst ATS teams in college football: Michigan St 4-9, Wisconsin 4-9, North Texas 4-9, W Michigan 4-9, S Florida 4-9, Mississippi 3-9, San Diego St 3-10, Georgia State 2-9-1, N Mexico St 2-9-1, UConn 2-9-1, Louisville 1-11

Point Train is off to a 3-1 start to the football season and has two big plays ready to go for Saturday’s schedule!

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Free Pick Thursday

1st Half: #139 Texas State +20.5 over Texas A&M 7:30 PM CT

Jimbo Fisher will be looking to get to 1-0 without a major exertion this week knowing that a season-making game with Clemson is on deck. Texas State was 3-9 in 2018 but actually only allowed six first quarter offensive touchdowns all season. This the most experienced team in the Sun Belt and Jake Spatival will bring a more aggressive approach to the offense, going back to a campus where he was an assistant for three years earlier in his career.

Expect the potential for a big play or two from the Bobcats early in this contest while Texas A&M will hope to offer conventional looks and play-calling to leave the top ranked Tigers will little meaningful film to dissect this week. The halftime spread priced just below the three touchdown threshold is certainly intentional and presumably enticing for many in a matchup where the Bobcats aren’t likely to draw a lot of support.

While at Florida State Jimbo Fisher beat Texas State 59-16 to open the 2015 season but it was only 21-10 at halftime and Fisher is just 2-4 ATS in home openers the past six years with last year’s win coming against FCS competition.

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Free MLB Pick Wednesday

#924 Oakland Athletics (Fiers) -115 over New York Yankees (Happ) 9:07 PM CT

Mike Fiers is 9-1 with a 2.52 ERA in 19 starts since May 1 as he has been the most reliable starter for the Athletics. He had a tough outing last week vs. Houston, the first time in that span of starts in which he had allowed more than three runs. Fiers has allowed two or fewer runs in 10 of the past 12 starts and he has terrific home splits in 84 innings at home with a 2.89 ERA. Adding J.A. Happ was a great benefit last season for the Yankees but this year the left-hander has struggled with a 5.40 ERA and a 5.55 FIP. Happ has allowed at least three runs in four of his last five starts and the results have been getting worse with a 6.85 ERA in his last nine starts. Oakland is currently the odd team out in the AL Playoff picture despite a 72-53 record but the Athletics are 21-10 vs. left-handed starters this season and 41-22 at the Coliseum. New York has great potential vs. right-handers but the power numbers are likely to slip in this spacious ballpark. New York’s offense has been held in check in the last week and this is a dangerous series ahead of a highly anticipated interleague series at Dodger Stadium this coming weekend. Oakland’s offense has cooled in the last month but this team is 14-6 in the past 20 games including a big series win over Houston and a 10-3 mark the past 13 home dates.

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Free MLB Pick Monday

#961/962 ‘UNDER 10.5’ Boston Red Sox (Rodriguez) at Cleveland Indians (Plesac) 6:10 PM CT

In his last 14 starts Eduardo Rodriguez is 9-2 with a 3.36 ERA, posting good strikeout numbers and pitching nearly as well on the road. Zach Plesac doesn’t have the strikeout potential of his rotation mates but he has been effective with a 3.13 ERA on the season. He pitched well against Boston in his MLB debut and while he has benefitted from weak opposition in many of his starts he has provided a capable path to the great Cleveland bullpen. Yesterday Cleveland won 7-3 but they were inches away from losing 4-3 and the game was 3-1 heading into the bottom of the ninth inning. The Indians are on a 43-18 run since the start of June but few of those results came vs. quality teams with the Indians 21-25 vs. above .500 squads on the season. Cleveland owns a great record vs. left-handed starters but only a .736 team OPS vs. southpaws as they have benefitted from several Detroit and Kansas City left-handers to boost that win count, ultimately going 22-7 vs. those teams this season. Rodriguez is an above average starter and the Boston bullpen has steadied with a 3.60 ERA the past 10 games. Cleveland home games have averaged 8.4 runs per game this season with a sharp lean to the ‘under’ in all Indians games and the ‘under’ is 5-1 in Cleveland home games with a total of 10.5 or higher.

Don’t miss a Nelly’s Baseball 2-for-1 offer for $15 Monday night!

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Free MLB Pick Wednesday

#905 Washington Nationals (Ross) -105 over San Francisco Giants (Anderson) 2:45 PM CT

Joe Ross looked like a future star for the Nationals making solid appearances in 2015 and 2016 but the 2011 1st round pick’s career has been derailed the past few years. He has worked his way back to the big leagues but holds an 8.10 ERA in 30 innings this season. Walks have been the big issue with 18 allowed but Ross can still generate strikeouts and he has had bad luck with runners on base scoring 40 percent of the time as well as a .376 BABIP. Ross has pitched well in his two starting efforts including allowing one hit in over five innings in his last start in Arizona last Friday. Pitching in a favorable ballpark against a light-hitting Giants team should be beneficial as Ross can deliver a steady outing. Washington has had bullpen issues all season but the team made several additions and currently is a deeper and stronger relief unit than the numbers suggest. San Francisco made a big run in July to get into wild card contention but dealt several relievers and signaled that the team wasn’t going after the playoffs this season. San Francisco has responded in kind going 4-8 the past 12 games. This team was lucky to get back to .500 with great fortune in one-run and extra-inning games and the bullpen no longer has the weapons to continue to win those games consistently. Rookie Shaun Anderson isn’t that much younger than Ross despite being drafted in 2016 and he has a K/9 below 6.0 and faces a Washington lineup that rarely strikes out today. His ERA has climbed to 5.08 and he has allowed at least three runs in six consecutive outings. While Washington is a stronger hitting team vs. left-handers, the Nationals have scored nearly 6.0 runs per nine vs. right-handers in the past 10 games compared to a 3.3 runs per nine average for the Giants. San Francisco is only 25-30 at Oracle Park while the Nationals are a winning road team and a team that continues to play for the postseason.

Bobby Dalton is 4-0 the past two days on the diamond – don’t miss Wednesday’s 2/3 Trips-2-Win offer for $19.99! Nelly’s Baseball is 3-0 since Sunday – play an afternoon side play for just $15!

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Free MLB Pick Tuesday

#978 Minnesota Twins (Berrios) -145 over Atlanta Braves (Fried) 7:10 PM CT

Minnesota is only 14-12 vs. left-handed starters this season but the Twins own an outrageous .874 team OPS vs. left-handed pitching this season. 65 of the team’s MLB leading 219 home runs have come against left-handers with the roster collectively batting .287 vs. southpaws. The bullpen survived to win last night and in this matchup of division leaders the late innings issues have been greater for Atlanta. Max Fried may be 12-4 but his ERA has climbed to 4.07 and is actually 5.22 over his past 11 starts as he hasn’t been able to match his great start to the season. Fried also has dramatically worse road numbers this year and he’ll have a hard time matching Joe Berrios Tuesday night. Berrios has allowed three or fewer earned runs in 11 consecutive outings to post a 2.80 ERA that is among the AL leaders. He owns an extremely low walk rate and a 2.10 ERA at home as a strong recent run has come even with six of his past seven starts on the road. The Twins have responded to the pressure from the Indians in the AL Central race with a current 9-2 run while Atlanta is just 8-11 the past 19 games despite still holding a firm NL East edge. The Braves also have lesser numbers vs. right-handers and a mostly right-handed Atlanta lineup faces Berrios and his .226 opposing batting average vs. left-handers with the Twins 35-21 at home this season.

Nelly’s is 2-0 the past two days on the diamond, don’t miss Tuesday’s Late Night Delivery! Bobby Dalton swept two picks Monday and guarantees to win another 10* Best Bet Total Tuesday night.

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Free MLB Pick Monday

#954 Miami Marlins (Smith) + over Arizona Diamondbacks (Kelly) 6:10 PM CT

There is a lot to like about Caleb Smith’s season line for the Marlins as the former Yankees draft pick has a 3.30 ERA in 90 innings. His 11.0 K/9 would be one of the top marks in the NL if he qualified and having a winning record pitching for the NL’s worst team is no small feat. Take away a disastrous start to the season the Marlins have been fairly competitive however, going 30-32 since mid-May and they enter this series finale having won four of the past five games, beating Arizona both Friday and Sunday. A big part of the turnaround has been consistent starting pitching with longer outings boosting the bullpen as the offense remains limited. Arizona prefers to face left-handers but facing a lefty of Smith’s caliber isn’t a routine assignment. At exactly .500 the Diamondbacks will be worth monitoring as the trade deadline approaches as this team was a buyer last season before a September crash and again going all-in for a shot a wild card game in a crowded NL picture isn’t likely. Arizona is 15-19 since mid-June and the lineup has been ice cold hitting .209 the past five games with a .633 OPS. 30-year-old rookie Merrill Kelly has provided average results this season and he has struggled on the road with a 4.68 ERA. Kelly has zero wins in his past seven starts and can be vulnerable to the home run. Arizona has a 5.19 ERA in the bullpen the past 10 games as well as the Diamondbacks look like a risky favorite on the road Monday night.

Nelly’s has a guaranteed NL side play tonight for just $15. Consider joining up for all of August baseball!