#702 San Francisco +4 over BYU 5:00 PM CT
San Francisco is 0-2 vs. Saint Mary’s in a 3-3 WCC start but both games vs. the
Gaels were close while every non-conference loss came in a competitive game as
well. All three home defeats have been top 100 caliber results and there is a
lot to like about the offensive numbers for the Dons with strong shooting numbers
all over the floor. Half of BYU’s losses this season have been overtime games
but the only road win in the past two months came Thursday at Pacific. BYU is
now drawing a third-consecutive road game on Saturday and a Cougars team
reliant on 3-point shooting will face one of the top 3-point defenses in the WCC.
San Francisco looks likely to dominate the rebounding in this game and have
great interior scoring opportunities with some clear size advantages in this
contest. Home wins over Yale, Southern Illinois, Sam Houston State, California,
and Santa Clara provide support of a quality edge at War Memorial and the Dons
won both meetings with BYU last season. A pair of huge home games are lined up
next week for BYU making this a challenging spot on the schedule for the Cougars
to be in top form, having scored 69 and 74 in the past two road games after
scoring in the 90s in the past two home games for a clear contrast.
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#612 Kentucky -9 over Alabama 11:00 AM CT
Kentucky is sitting outside the normal top 10 radar the program has constantly sat in under John Calipari with three early season losses including the stunning November home loss to Evansville. The Wildcats shouldn’t be ruled out as the top SEC threat as usual however and the current three-game winning streak is an impressive one, beating Louisville as well as starting 2-0 in SEC play with convincing results. Alabama rates similarly to Missouri and Georgia teams Kentucky has defeated in the last week but the Tide are coming off a stunning 21-point win over Mississippi State on Wednesday and this will be a difficult road test for Nate Oats in his first season at Alabama after his great run at Buffalo. The pace has been fast for the Crimson Tide but this squad is reliant on 3-point shooting and will face an elite defensive team in one of the nation’s toughest venues. Alabama has zero top 50 wins this season and the only road win of the season came at Samford while allowing 87 points. Alabama lost by 18 in the SEC tournament in the last meeting with the Wildcats and while a lot has changed for both teams the gap between the programs remains similar.
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Big E has gone 4-0 in his highest rated selections in basketball this season with a 3-0 record in 15* picks and an underdog winning outright in his first 20* of the season Thursday. Add to a 32-19 run with today’s 10* and 20* plays including his 20* Conference Game of the Year in the Big XII!
Bobby Dalton has had a strong start in 2020 including winning his first six picks of the New Year. Get tonight’s 10* pick in college basketball!
FOOTBALL action is up for the Divisional Round as well with several big picks Saturday & Sunday in the NFL!
Indiana -12.5 over Northwestern 6:00 PM CT
Indiana is just 1-2 in Big Ten play and is in a critical spot knowing this weekend’s game with Ohio State is a very difficult draw. The Hoosiers needed overtime to beat Nebraska in its only conference win and in the past six games has not won by more than six points with a 3-3 run erasing an 8-0 start to the season for Archie Miller. All eight of those wins came at home but all also came by double-digits including impressive results vs. Louisiana Tech and Florida State as this hefty spread is attainable for the Hoosiers in what remains a great home court. The Hoosiers are a great interior scoring team with a huge jump in the offensive numbers from last season even without Romeo Langford. This team has great size and depth that should test a shorthanded Northwestern squad Wednesday night. The Wildcats have had unimaginable injury luck so far and will again be shorthanded having now lost four straight games and six of the past eight. The Big Ten losses have come by 14, 5, and 9 but Sunday’s closer finish at Minnesota was misleading, trailing by 23 at one point before incredibly scoring 34 points in the final 10 minutes. Northwestern is a poor scoring team and isn’t likely to get to the line often in this matchup to take advantage of good foul shooting numbers for one of the only strong suits for the offense. Northwestern won only four Big Ten games last season but one of those games was vs. Indiana and this should be a game that has the attention of the Hoosiers, especially coming off an ugly loss on Saturday by 16 points.
Nelly’s is on a 16-7 run in college basketball and we expect a multi-game offer for Wednesday night – join us for that offer or sign up for rest of January for only $149 with a recently discounted monthly rate!
Big E is expecting a 15* Game of the Month in college hoops tonight as well for $15.94, having gone 2-0 on those selections this season while on a current 11-6 run overall in basketball.
Bobby Dalton has also had a red hot start in 2020 including a 10-1 record so far in conference play in college basketball!
#618 Rutgers +1.5 over Penn State 6:00 PM CT
Rutgers needs to be taken seriously in the Big Ten race. The Scarlet Knights are already 2-1 in league play with the only defeat in East Lansing while this team also has a non-conference win over Seton Hall. The overall schedule hasn’t been overly difficult but Rutgers won a Big Ten road game last week and is 10-0 at home this season with seven of those wins coming by double-digits. Losing Geo Baker to a thumb injury is a big blow for the long term hopes for the Knights but Rutgers won convincingly at Nebraska Friday and could still remain a competitive team against the middle tier teams in the conference. The interior scoring should remain strong and Steve Pikiell’s team has delivered nationally elite defensive numbers so far in his fourth season. Penn State has seven top 100 wins this season but only two would counts as high of quality as Rutgers and both of those games were in favorable close-to-home or home venues. Saturday’s three-point win in Philadelphia over Iowa featured great fortune as they trailed nearly the entire second half before watching the Hawkeyes falter at the line. Penn State only has one true road win all season and that game was nearly two months ago as this is a dangerous spot on the schedule for a team that has had several narrow wins on the season to boost the record. Penn State lost at home in this series last season while winning by only one in the road meeting and while both teams are clearly improved the Lions haven’t proven they can win Big Ten road games yet.
Nelly’s has turned in back-to-back college winners the past two days including an underdog that won by double-digits last night. We’ve hit over 60% this season and are on a 16-6 run in college basketball while plus nearly 100 stars the past three basketball regular seasons combined!
Bobby Dalton is on an 8-0 run with a perfect start in 2020 while 10-0 conference game picks so far this basketball season!
Big E is riding an 11-5 run in basketball Biggies and has 15* and 20* picks planned this week:
#651 Canisius +9 over Buffalo 6:00 PM CT
Buffalo has been a force with 59 wins the past two season combined and two NCAA Tournament wins. Last year’s team lost three senior starters however in addition to head coach Nate Oats who is leading Alabama. Under Jim Whitesell the Bulls are 6-4 but with some inconsistency including a win over DePaul but a 13-point home loss over Army in the past two games. The tempo is ultra-fast but this year’s team has lousy shooting numbers, especially from the 3-point arc and the free throw line.
Canisius lost by 15 hosting Buffalo last season and this year’s has rallied to 5-4 after starting 0-2. Wins over Bucknell, St. Bonaventure, and Illinois-Chicago stand out while three of four losses have been single-digit results. This is a great interior scoring team and a defense that excels at defending the 3-point shot and creating turnovers, which could play well in a high-possession game against Buffalo’s pace given a total in the 150s.
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#305 Tampa Bay Buccaneers – over Detroit Lions 12:00 PM CT
The Buccaneers lost the turnover battle 4-1 last week and still won vs. a team fighting to stay in the playoff race. The Buccaneers put up 542 yards in that game and this team has won four of the past five games with big offensive numbers, including averaging more than 30 points per game the past six games. While the 6-7 Buccaneers have only one win against a team with a winning record, they do have four road wins and the three road losses were one-score games vs. likely playoff teams. The Lions have dropped six straight games in a miserable season and while many of the recent games have been competitive, they also haven’t had to face many great offensive teams in recent weeks facing the Bears twice in the past five games while also playing at Washington.
Detroit has been held to 20 or fewer points in four of the past five games and every team that has defeated Tampa Bay this season has scored 27 or more points with the Lions topping 27 just twice in 13 games this season. After an encouraging first start on Thanksgiving, David Blough struggled last week with two interceptions while taking five sacks and while Tampa Bay’s defense will provide him with a more favorable matchup, the Lions have posted only 4.7 yards per play the past three games for one of the worst averages in the league. Tampa Bay’s defense has 12 sacks the past three games as while Jameis Winston has been a consistent turnover risk this season, the Buccaneers rank fifth in the NFL in creating 22 turnovers and big plays could go against Detroit as well. In his career Winston’s QB Rating is 10 points higher in his road starts while posting far lesser interception rate and a fast indoor field will be beneficial to a Buccaneers offense with several big play threats. Tampa Bay has covered in two thirds of its games as a road favorite since Winston joined the team including winning by 17 two weeks ago similarly priced in Jacksonville.
Detroit is just 9-13 ATS as a home underdog since 2015 while featuring 6.6 yards per play allowed at home for the worst mark in the NFL this season. There are three other 3-win teams right now and all of those teams have a decent chance to win this week as the Lions have an incentive to continue to slide to better its draft positioning for next season while reaching .500 has been a noted and realistic goal for a Buccaneers team that is playing at a much higher level than the season record suggests. This line has climbed too high to stay in the mix for a rated pick but will be our lean for today’s free pick.
#528 Detroit Pistons +7 over Dallas Mavericks 8:05 PM CT @Mexico City
Detroit is 10-14 but currently the Pistons are the first team out of the Eastern Conference playoff field and just a game back of the Magic. The Pistons also have a positive scoring differential despite the losing record. Detroit has quietly won four of the last five while also winning six of the past 10 for a solid stretch of play in recent weeks with two of the losses in that timeframe to the East leading Bucks. Detroit has clearly turned a corner in recent weeks and the Pistons are 5-6 S/U against the league’s top 16 teams, competing well against quality competition. The Pistons are finally healthy and this team is playing with some confidence with a narrow win in the last game via a Derrick Rose game-winner. Luke Kennard and Langston Galloway have taken huge strides this season to make the Pistons a more complete group behind Blake Griffin, Andre Drummond, and Markieff Morris in the formidable frontcourt. Griffin missed much of the slow start for the Pistons and has been a big boost to a roster that is currently stronger than the record suggests. This is a big stage for a Dallas team that suddenly has transformed into a serious contender. Dallas is 16-7 on the season with great offensive numbers but this Mexico City spotlight game is not something the team is used to. Dallas has played the NBA’s weakest schedule to produce the great results and is barely .500 vs. quality teams this season. Detroit has just as many top 16 wins as Dallas has and the Pistons were a seven-point favorite the last time these teams met last January in Detroit. Drummond is listed as questionable tonight to keep this game at Free Pick level as his defensive presence will be important in this contest.
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#622 Virginia Tech +7.5 over Duke 6:00 PM CT
As usual Duke looks like one of the most talented teams in the nation and the 8-1 record through nine games features a pair of very impressive wins at the bookends, beating Kansas in the opener and besting Michigan State on Tuesday with both of those games away from home. Going from Tuesday’s huge win in East Lansing vs. the preseason #1 to facing the ACC opener on the road will be a difficult turnaround for the young Blue Devils who have struggled with turnovers and free throw shooting. Virginia Tech also beat Michigan State and is already 1-0 in ACC play for new head coach Mike Young who took over after Buzz Williams left for Texas A&M. The longtime Wofford coach won 30 games last season including a NCAA Tournament win over Seton Hall last March. A 6-0 start with the Hokies has spoiled to 6-2 but the team has had a long layoff of more than a week to prepare for one of the biggest games of the season. The Hokies lost only twice at home last season including beating Duke 77-72 before ultimately ending its season with a two-point Sweet 16 loss to the Blue Devils as there will be no shortage of motivation even if the roster has turned over considerably. The Hokies are starting three freshman but Young’s impact has been instant with some of the best numbers in the nation shooting and taking care of the ball, including an over 43 percent 3-point shooting clip so far. Cassius Stanley is out of action for Duke to take out a possible matchup edge against a smaller Hokies team and at +7 one of the best shooting teams in the country is worth a look at home with Duke coming off a huge win on the national stage.
Nelly’s hit 62% in November basketball and we cashed with Furman in college hoops last night, nearly upsetting Auburn in overtime as a massive underdog. We’ve hit 64 percent in the NBA this season already – join us for a Friday night side play or consider signing up for an extended subscription as we are well on our way to a third huge season in basketball in a row.
#147 Kansas +25 over Iowa State 11:00 AM CT
The midseason momentum Kansas gained from the close loss to Texas and the upset over Texas Tech has been erased with lopsided losses the past two weeks. While the offense has struggled and the initial glow of new OC Brent Dearmon has worn off, the defense has kept the scoring in check. The Jayhawks will also be a significantly higher underdog in Ames than they were in Forth Worth, Austin, or Stillwater even with a pretty-even grouping among those teams in the second tier of the Big XII. Kansas was only out-gained by 62 yards in this matchup last season and Iowa State is 0-2-1 ATS in the past three games as a Big XII favorite. The Cyclones are an average rushing team and can be overly reliant on the passing game which is not an ideal heavy favorite criterion, while Kansas has posted very respectable pass defense numbers and has out-thrown three straight Big XII foes. Iowa State may have a tough time matching the intensity of the past few games facing Oklahoma and Texas in succession with tense finishes in both games. Even with clear improvement for Kansas this season under Les Miles this will be the biggest favorite spread for Matt Campbell vs. a FBS foe since he took over at Iowa State in 2016 and in our data back to 1980 the Cyclones have never been this big of a favorite vs. a FBS foe with this year’s 6-4 squad not exactly looking deserving of a historic price. Kansas is on a 9-2 ATS run at +24 or higher and the points make sense in this situation with a possible letdown for Iowa State.
North Dakota +6.5 over Milwaukee 7:00 PM CT
won just nine games last season including closing the season with 11
consecutive Horizon League defeats. That was a veteran team and only two
starters have returned. Illinois transfer Te’Jon Lucas was a big addition for
the program and the team has much more promise this season.
The 3-1 start has featured two non-division I wins however and also includes a home loss to Western Michigan. The only division I win came Friday vs. UMKC, a nine-point result despite a big rebounding and free throw shooting edge. North Dakota rates similarly to the two teams Milwaukee has split with but is 1-2 on the season having had to play road games with Gonzaga and Valparaiso.
numbers are meaningless for the Fighting Hawks so far this season given the
tough assignment with Gonzaga and this is a team in a coaching transition after
a long run under Brian Jones as Paul Sather is leading the team this season.
This squad has a mix of experience with two seniors and two freshmen in the
starting five but this year’s team is less reliant on 3-point shooting and should
have opportunities against the shaky defense for the Panthers.
presence of Lucas has overvalued Milwaukee so far this season and he can’t do
it all and the limited size and depth for the Panthers could be a problem in
this matchup as another close game looks likely.
Nelly’s is already 9-5 this basketball season, following hot early season runs the past two years including 31-16 in November and December last season! Join us for a basketball subscription with nearly 90* of profit the past two seasons combined.