Category: Artlcles

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1-0 NBA Restart, 11-1 NBA RUN!

Nelly’s took an 10-1-1 run into the NBA break and we added our first winner in the restart last night, now over 63% on the 2019-20 season. Join us for a pick tonight for only $15 or play through the NBA Finals for only $199 as we look to build on a now 11-1 run!


Nelly’s Baseball was also a winner last night and we’ve had a productive start to the 2020 season on the diamond. Daily selections are available from Nelly’s and Bobby Dalton.


The Big Dog Bobby Dalton is also releasing Horse Racing advice for tonight’s action at his home track, Monmouth Park. He hit 16 of 29 winners in races Friday/Saturday/Sunday last week at Monmouth. For just $12 get his picks on tonight’s concise 6-race card. 


Keep posted for Free Picks and updates on all the daily selections at www.nellysports.com.


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NBA Restart in 48 Hours!

On Thursday, July 30 the NBA will return with the start of an eight-game conclusion to the regular season to finalize the seeding for the playoffs. We discussed each team with notes and standings in our NBA Restart Preview Guide a few weeks ago.

While the new format with a possible play-in round for the #8 spot is alluring, ultimately the positioning changes won’t be of critical importance to most of the contenders. Most teams will simply be looking to stay healthy and get back in sync for a playoff run. That will still mean some great opportunities, particularly for certain underdog situations in games that may only carry meaning on one side.

Once the playoffs begin, it could be wild run of closely contested series. The long layoff and the lack of a home court advantage will certainly penalize the favorites that built great records before the break, and certainly this could be a second straight season with a surprise NBA champion. The NBA playoffs are notoriously chalky but that may not be the case in this unusual shortened season run where every team will be at risk to have juggle its roster in key stretches.

Here are the top contenders and the adjusted NBA title prices, some of which have changed from the numbers in our NBA Restart Preview Guide which was put together several weeks ago:

Los Angeles Lakers (+250): Everyone will be expecting a LA/LA Western Conference Finals but the Lakers are moving forward without Avery Bradley who started 44 games and was a great defensive asset. Rajon Rondo is also likely out until September. Anthony Davis may open up the restart on the shelf along with Dwight Howard, though the Lakers have very little risk of losing the #1 seed in the West.

Milwaukee Bucks (+250): The Bucks are a massive favorite to win the Eastern Conference and almost certainly will be the #1 seed in the playoffs. A franchise and city in a long title drought will have a harder path than they deserved in these circumstances as no team was likely hurt more (in terms of championship probability) than the Bucks. Milwaukee had rested Giannis Antetokounmpo consistently to prepare for this run. Adding to the challenge has been the opportunity for several quality East teams that underachieved to get healthy.

Los Angeles Clippers (+333): The Clippers have pulled a slightly easier schedule than the Lakers in the 8 games to finalize the seeding but 5.5 games is an overwhelming hurdle even if the Clippers take the opener with their rival. This group isn’t a lock to hold on to the #2 seed as Denver or Utah will try to make a run at passing them up. That is of particular importance with Houston lurking as the likely #5 or #6 seed though many seeding scenarios are still in play in the middle of the West playoff standings. The Clippers have roster issues as well with Patrick Beverley, Montrezl Harrel, and Lou Williams all leaving the team for various situations as this team could be vulnerable.

Given the unusual nature of this playoff season the variance figures to be higher and we’ll be looking to take a shot with some of the sleepers listed deeper in the odds. Be sure to join us for our NBA Restart Package for only $199.

Nelly’s has had three absolutely huge NBA regular seasons in a row, hitting just over 63% in 2017-18, just over 66% in 2018-19, and we were riding a 62.9% record including a 10-1 run before Covid-19 shut down the 2019-20 season. We’ll be well prepared for the resumption of the regular season and the playoff schedule in Orlando expected to span from late July through the Finals in late October (we went 4-1 in the NBA Finals last season).

Nelly’s and Bobby Dalton have both had winning starts through the first five days of the MLB season, check out daily picks or join for the rest of the MLB season!

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MLB Season Opens July 23

Baseball is finally ready to start its season on Thursday night!

We posted our usual MLB Preview Guide a few weeks ago with the below win total predictions for the abbreviated MLB season. We are ready to go and could have our first pick on opening night!

Daily updates via email and/or text are included with our 2020 MLB Season Subscription available for only $199 – with the season from late July to the end of October that is just ~$60 a month!

Bobby Dalton also expects to post regular MLB updates and has his season package available with a great history of success on the diamond.

Here are the win totals we posted in early July:

NL EAST

BEST BET: UNDER 31½ – Philadelphia Phillies: A third of the games for the Phillies will be against the Nats and the Braves, clear NL contenders. Add in 10 more games with a formidable Mets rotation and wins will be tough to come by for a limited offensive team. The Marlins pitching staff even offers some promise while the AL East draw won’t do the Phillies any favors. New acquisition Zack Wheeler has already questioned being able to finish the season with his first child on the way while putting the DH in the NL isn’t likely to benefit the Philadelphia lineup as much as other teams in the division with better offensive depth. Aaron Nola regressed last season and returning to his 2018 form isn’t likely in a short season as he has been a very slow starter with a 5.68 ERA in March/April in his career. Rookie Spencer Howard is likely the leading candidate for the fifth spot in the rotation with Jake Arrieta and Zach Eflin at best average options after Nola. The Philadelphia bullpen is already littered with injuries for a unit that had limited promise to start with. 31½ doesn’t sound like an overwhelming figure, but the Phillies were just a .500 team in 2019 and haven’t topped .500 in a season since the 2011 campaign.  

NL CENTRAL

BEST BET: OVER 30½ Wins – Milwaukee Brewers: The Brewers don’t have many household names in the rotation following rising star Brandon Woodruff but the Brewers should be well-suited for a short campaign as they can lean on the deep and versatile bullpen. Milwaukee is 55 games above .500 the past three years combined and last season made its great late season run without Christian Yelich. The Cubs and Pirates are surely candidates to decline in 2020 compared to last season while drawing a third of the schedule against the AL Central while completely avoiding the NL East and NL West teams is a huge plus for Milwaukee’s chances at returning to the playoffs for a third straight season. While Craig Counsell’s creativity may take a hit with the implementation of the DH in the NL this season, the Brewers have viable DH candidates in an aging Ryan Braun and defensively challenged Keston Hiura, while sluggers Ryon Healy and Logan Morrison are also in camp looking to possibly earn a spot behind new addition Justin Smoak. Another newcomer Avisail Garcia also could reemerge as a major contributor after battling injuries the past two seasons in Chicago and Tampa Bay.

NL WEST

BEST BET: OVER 31 – Arizona Diamondbacks: The Dodgers are certainly the favorites in the West but Arizona held its own in that series last season and went 39-32 after the All Star break in 2019 despite falling out of the playoff race with a mid-September slide. Madison Bumgarner is the high-profile addition to lead the staff but Robbie Ray, Zac Gallen, and Luke Weaver give the Diamondbacks a solid rotation top-to-bottom. The schedule will also work out well for Arizona with 30 games ahead vs. the Rockies, Padres, and Giants, division foes that Arizona could have done much better against last season. Houston and Oakland will be difficult draws from the AL but that division crossover will also bring four games with Seattle and will mean much lesser travel than the team is accustomed to. Arizona has had three consecutive winning seasons, even in years dealing with a historically great Dodgers team and a more formidable Colorado team than is expected this season. The Rockies have a bit of rebound potential this season but the Giants aren’t as likely to hang around as long this season, while San Diego remains a team with many question marks. The Dodgers will also lean on three ultra-young starters behind Clayton Kershaw which could mean some inconsistency and more work for the bullpen.

AL EAST

BEST BET: UNDER 31½ – Boston Red Sox: The 2018 Red Sox were a historically great team with 108 wins and a World Series title. Last season Boston dropped to just 84 wins and the climb downward could continue in the abbreviated 2020 season. New York and Tampa Bay look like perhaps the top two AL contenders and those two teams will fill a third of Boston’s schedule, teams the Red Sox combined to go 12-26 against last season. Last season’s #5 starter for the Red Sox Eduardo Rodriguez is now the staff ace by default while Nathan Eovaldi and Collin McHugh back from injuries and an aging Martin Perez off a season overachievement will need to fill out the rotation. Subtracting Mookie Betts isn’t going to spell improvement as the lineup is much less intimidating and will also draw 20 games against the pitching-rich NL East as well, with Boston only 10-10 in interleague play last season. Boston went 21-11 vs. the AL Central last season and had a winning record against four of five AL West teams and now has all of those opponents erased. 31½ sounds low for a popular Red Sox team accustomed to being in contention but winning 32 games means a 53.3% winning percentage for at team that won at a 51.9% clip last season. 

AL CENTRAL

BEST BET: UNDER 34 – Minnesota Twins: Given that the Twins will play the Royals and Tigers 20 times and capable but not overly formidable Cleveland and Chicago squads 20 times, many will call for a great season in Minnesota. The Twins were clear overachievers last season with 101 wins however in a historically great home run season. Minnesota got unexpected starting pitching last season and now is turning to three veterans that have battled injuries and inconsistency in recent years to replace much of that success. Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi also are regression candidates at the top of the rotation and the short summer camp will likely mean more reliance on a bullpen that lacked quality depth last season. The NL Central draw is a tricky one with likely four quality teams in that group and the Twins were just 8-12 in interleague games last season. Minnesota still lost its season series with the Indians last year and was a fortunate team in one-run games with a 23-12 record. A huge 21-8 May buoyed the season with Minnesota a more average performer in the mid-summer months before another embarrassing playoff sweep. Josh Donaldson is a high profile addition but several returnees might struggle to match their 2019 pace.

AL WEST

BEST BET: OVER 28½ – Texas Rangers: The new ballpark will be an unknown factor but there remains a lot to like about the Texas lineup. Adding Corey Kluber gives the Rangers a potential ace to match with the quality results Lance Lynn and Mike Minor have provided while Kyle Gibson remains a pitcher with a tantalizing upside. The rotation is high on experience which could help to offset some of the uncertainty in the bullpen. The case for the Rangers also hinges on clear paths to decline from Houston and Oakland. The Astros will remain formidable but two expected starters in the rotation haven’t even reported yet and everyone will be looking to spoil Houston’s season. Oakland also has some regression potential after back-to-back 97-win seasons. The five projected starters for Oakland won a combined 30 games last season and while the bullpen can carry the team it may be a tougher path. Seattle looks like one of the worst teams in baseball this season as Texas could produce a much better record in that series this season. The NL West interleague draw also offers some matchup and travel benefits to the Rangers as this team that was 48-42 at the All Star break last season has the potential to be a sleeper in the AL playoff race. Texas should at least have a good shot for a .500 campaign following three straight losing seasons.

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Green Sheet Issue #6 is posted

Don’t miss this week’s issue of the Green Sheet with an in-depth look at the 2020-21 football season in the Big XII.

Can Oklahoma continue its reign in the conference or can a team like Texas or Oklahoma State rise to the top. Four head coaches will be looking to take a step forward in their second seasons while Dave Aranda joins the conference as one of the most accomplished first time head coaches in recent memory.

Get this week’s issue for only $12 or join for the entire season subscription for only $99!

That season price includes all five past issues and works out to just over $3 per issue for the season! That rate goes up to $149 soon, don’t wait any longer!

Baseball and Basketball are just around the corner – email us at nelly@nellysports.com if you’d like our MLB Preview or our NBA Restart Guide!

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NBA Restart July 30

The NBA will restart on July 30 with an eight-game finish to the regular season to finalize the seeding for the playoffs, with a new possible twist in play for the final spot in each conference.

Nelly’s has had three absolutely huge NBA regular seasons in a row, hitting just over 63% in 2017-18, just over 66% in 2018-19, and we were riding a 62.9% record including a 10-1 run before Covid-19 shut down the 2019-20 season. We’ll be well prepared for the resumption of the regular season and the playoff schedule in Orlando expected to span from late July through the Finals in late October (we went 4-1 in the NBA Finals last season).

Join us for the entire duration from July through October,  featuring nearly three months of daily updates for just $199. 

We will be posting a short preview guide for the restart this week – email us at nelly@nellysports.com to receive a copy when it is sent out (likely by July 17), including a look at each remaining team and several win total predictions.

EASTERN CONFERENCE TEAMS (Odds to Win Conference):

Milwaukee Bucks (-185): The Bucks are a massive favorite to win the Eastern Conference and almost certainly will be the #1 seed in the playoffs. There is no home court advantage ahead however and the Bucks were ousted in the Eastern Conference Finals last season in six games against Toronto despite being the #1 seed. A franchise and city in a long title drought will have a harder path than they deserved in these circumstances.

Toronto Raptors (+600): No one expected the Raptors to be in same position they were last season without Kawhi Leonard but Toronto is on pace to again be the #2 seed in the Eastern Conference. At +600 to win the East few are banking on another long postseason run but the restart does provide an opportunity for a team that has proven many wrong before.

Boston Celtics (+550): The Celtics are +550 to win the Eat despite being closer to falling to the #4 spot than moving up to the #2 spot at the restart. Gordon Hayward is also expected to leave the bubble in September for the birth of a child in the middle of possibly the conference finals if the Celtics get that far. Respect for Brad Stevens in these unusual circumstances is carrying some weight.

Miami Heat (+1100): The Heat are a surprise top four team and will be saddled with a tough schedule out of the restart with four difficult games including facing the three teams above them in the standings. Indiana and Philadelphia are just two games behind Miami, though the urgency in playing for seeding may be less significant in this format… this content continues in our NBA Restart preview guide.

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2020 MLB Schedule is set!

The MLB season will finally be starting in a few weeks with an opening night doubleheader (Yankees/Nationals & Giants/Dodgers) on July 23 and a full slate July 24.

A 60-game schedule for every team featuring only division games and interleague crossover games with the corresponding division in the other league means a great change from the normal 162-game slate and it will be a wild two months to trim the league from 30 to 10 playoff teams.

There will be new challenges and roster management situations that franchises aren’t accustomed to and even the teams that have been at the bottom of the league in recent years should have some optimism needing only two strong months to be in the mix. For example on June 1 last season the Phillies and Rangers were both playoff teams while Colorado and San Diego had winning records. The eventual World Series champions were only 25-33, sitting just a few games above the Marlins in the NL East standings.

Check out a five-page MLB PREVIEW from Nelly’s that includes a look at the recently released updated 2020 schedule, along with the projected rotations and an over/under win total prediction for each division.

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Fourth of July Racing!

Belmont Park has a big day scheduled for the holiday Saturday and our horse racing connection will be ready to go with a full report including four stakes races, with a 15/1 long shot in his sights as an incredibly promising opportunity.

With years of experience our contact comes from our colleagues at ASA and his full racing report focused on Belmont Park for Saturday, July 4 will be available for just $25 by Saturday morning.

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NBA & MLB Back on the Schedule!

The MLB has finally ended its debates and is set to start the 2020 season July 23. Nelly’s ended the 2019 season on a roll with a big September and postseason run and we’ll be ready to go for opening day. Join us for the entire season for only $199!

The NBA is also set for an 8-game regular season finish and then the postseason starting July 30.

Nelly’s has had three absolutely huge NBA regular seasons in a row, hitting just over 63% in 2017-18, just over 66% in 2018-19, and we were riding a 62.9% record including a 10-1 run before Covid-19 shut down the 2019-20 season. We’ll be well prepared for the resumption of the regular season and the playoff schedule in Orlando expected to span from late July through the Finals in late October (we went 4-1 in the NBA Finals last season).

Join us for the complete remainder of the season for only $199 for nearly three months of action!

For the most action and the best deal we are offering BOTH the MLB & NBA subscriptions together for just $329 in our Super Combo Sub package – a limited time offer!

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Green Sheet Issue #5 in the SEC

This week’s Green Sheet release is all about the SEC. LSU delivered a historically great championship season last year to keep the conference on top of college football. The Tigers will return minimal experience in 2020 as there is likely to be a change at the top. 

Find out which three programs return top five experience ratings on both sides of the ball for 2020, one of which rates as a clear surprise candidate given its schedule with a 10-0 start very possible. We also have seven pages of coaching stats and team history, along with the 2020 schedules in this week’s issue. 
Find out which coach is a nearly 79% ATS proposition in his career as a road favorite, including going 4-0 last season in that role. What role has Nick Saban only covered at a 20% ATS rate in his tenure at Alabama? It is the same role that Gus Malzahn has covered at an 80% clip in his time at Auburn.

Mike Leach and Lane Kiffin are well-traveled high-profile additions to the SEC this season and we have all of their past results broken down in Green Sheet issue #5, available now for just $12, or you can still sign up for the full season subscription for only $99, this rate will be going up to $149 soon, so don’t delay! 

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Horse Racing Saturday!

Don’t miss an expert report for Saturday’s Horse action for just $25! Picks are from Churchill Downs, Belmont Park, and the Ohio Derby.

Green Sheet Issue #4 is out, covering the ACC! Save $50 on the full season newsletter subscription for a few more days! Our SEC issue will be out next week!