NCAA Contender Concerns
Selection
Sunday is less than two weeks away and some of the top contenders for the NCAA
Tournament are clear. Many expect a wide open field this season however and
here some possible concerns for 11 teams that have a good shot to wind up seeded
in the most favorable spots on the bracket.
Kansas: Bill Self’s past tournament failures
With
a long winning steak heading into the final week of the regular season
including a late February win at Baylor, Kansas is a near-certain #1 seed and
currently in position to be the #1 overall seed in the tournament. The
statistics are very compelling with the top rated defense in the country while
Silvio De Sousa is set to rejoin the team next week. This team has great size
and talent and a quality track record featuring five top 20 caliber wins, four
of which have come away from home while being a one-point and a two-point loss
away from being 28-1.
It
is impossible to ignore Bill Self’s disappointing NCAA Tournament track record
however. Kansas did win the 2007-08 championship but they had a favorable path
in terms of opponents and locations on that run, including beating a #12 seed in
the Sweet 16 and a #10 seed in the Elite 8. Recall they also trailed by nine in
the championship game with just over two minutes to go before Memphis collapsed
including missing four of its final five free throws while failing to foul up
by three in the final seconds of regulation.
Since
that championship season Kansas has been a #1 seed six different times while at
least a #4 seed in every other year and yet Self and the Jayhawks have been
back to the Final Four just twice in those in 11 seasons while failing to
escape the opening weekend six different times in Self’s tenure, all as a top
four seed. Kansas is a bad free throw shooting team and has limited depth with
the roster getting a scare with a possible injury to Udoka Azubuike last weekend.
Kansas has the profile of a top contender and this is Self’s best defense since
the championship season but we’ve seen plenty of great Jayhawks teams falter in
March in recent years as it will be an uncomfortable choice to write Kansas six
times in your bracket.
Gonzaga: Not a championship caliber defense
A
run to the national title game in the 2016-17 season has legitimized Gonzaga as
a program that can win it all and this year’s team could be a #1 seed for the
fourth time in the past eight years. Gonzaga has made at least the Sweet 16
each of the past four seasons and this year’s team grades as the top offensive
team in the nation. There is great size on the roster and this is an
experienced veteran team even with significant turnover from last season’s squad
that fell just short of the Final Four.
Gonzaga
doesn’t have a ton of weight in its non-conference campaign however as wins
over Texas A&M, Washington, Arizona, and North Carolina didn’t pan out to
be overly meaningful results despite the past track records of those programs.
A one-point overtime win over Oregon is the best non-conference win for the
Bulldogs but that result was cancelled out the next day in the Bahamas with an
18-point loss to Michigan.
With
BYU and Saint Mary’s expected to also be in the NCAA Tournament field the WCC
is as good as it has been in several years but it will still be a big leap in
competition for the Bulldogs in March. This is also Mark Few’s worst defensive efficiency
team since 2010-11 when Gonzaga earned just a #11 seed and was bounced in the
round of 32. The Gonzaga team that lost in the championship to North Carolina
graded as the nation’s best defense, this year’s team barely cracks the top 40,
a range almost no championship teams emerge from historically.
San Diego State: A long layoff without quality opposition
It
took a comeback win in Saturday’s regular season finale for San Diego State to
avoid losing for a second time in three games, pulling out a comeback win at
Nevada to finish 28-1. Some will argue it was better for the Aztecs to not
enter the tournament with the pressure of being undefeated but another issue
for San Diego State is that the Mountain West tournament starts this week and
there will be at least an 11-day layoff before the Round of 64 game for a team
that could still earn a #1 seed if they are victorious this week in Las Vegas.
November
wins over BYU, Creighton, and Iowa have put some meat on the great record for
San Diego State but from a possible Round of 32 game it will have been three
and half months since the Aztecs have faced a top 40 caliber opponent. The
Mountain West hasn’t performed very well in recent NCAA Tournaments and this
looks like a down year for the conference as whole, grading as the 10th best
conference in the nation when as recently as 2012-13 the conference cracked the
national top four.
That season produced five NCAA Tournament teams from the conference but those teams collectively wound up 2-5 in the Big Dance despite four of five teams being seeded #8 or better. Last year the conference produced just two teams in the field and both lost badly in the Round of 64 as favorites. This year Utah State has a shot at earning one of the final at-large bids but if the Aztecs roll through the conference tournament it will likely be a one-bid conference. The Aztecs have been a great story but the track record of success for teams from this conference has been poor. This team also often becomes too reliant on low percentage shots from Malachi Flynn while by major conference standards this group is going to have a hard time matching up size-wise against most power conference foes.
Baylor: Rebounding and free throws
The
#1 team in the polls most of the season with a 23-game winning streak Baylor
could still earn a #1 draw even with losses in two of past three games. Two
opportunities for quality wins finish the regular season slate and the Bears
will hope to fare well in the Big XII tournament, though they are 0-3 in the
past three seasons in the conference tournament.
Baylor
has a top 20 offensive and defensive efficiency ranking and as one of the
nation’s top defensive teams this team has a championship pedigree even with
some offensive lapses at times. Baylor is a bottom four team in the Big XII in
two-point scoring and free throw shooting but the deliberate pace and the mix
of zone defense can be challenging for opponents, particularly in a short
scheduling turnaround in a tournament setting. Scott Drew’s team made the Elite
8 in 2009-10 and 2011-12 but hasn’t advanced past the Sweet 16 since but under
Drew the Bears have never drawn better than a #3 seed, which they almost
certainly will this season.
Baylor
is not a good defensive rebounding team and opponents were handed the perfect
formula for beating the Bears by a marginal TCU group last week. Keep pace with
Baylor on the boards and turning the game into a free throw shooting contest
with Baylor struggling at the line outside of MaCio Teague. Davion Mitchell is
a primary ball handler for the Bears despite being a 68 percent free throw
shooter and a 31 percent 3-point shooter and without a starter above 6’9” the
Bears don’t have as imposing of a front court as they have had in years past.
Dayton: Marginal defense with quality wins absent
On
paper there is a lot to like about Dayton sitting at 27-2 with both losses away
from home in overtime against high-quality competition. Dayton grades as one of
the best offensive teams in the nation including the top 2-point shooting
percentage in the nation as the Flyers rarely have scoring droughts. Obi Toppin
is a future NBA lottery pick that is capable of being one of the stars of the
tournament as well.
The
highest rated win for Dayton is against Saint Mary’s however as while the
Atlantic 10 has pretty good depth with a handful of decent teams, it ultimately
is at risk to be a one-bid league should the Flyers win the conference tournament.
Dayton has also been pushed with single-digit wins in six straight road games
as the Flyers have had some good fortune to escape unblemished in league play.
Dayton will certainly be the worst defensive team to land in the top three seed lines in the tournament field. If the Flyers can win out they could earn a favorable venue draw with Cleveland a possible landing spot and if they end up in the Midwest the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 games are in Indianapolis as the Flyers have a chance to be ahead of every Big Ten team as well as Kentucky, teams that would normally be considered to snag the top billing in Cleveland. Getting the Midwest draw would likely mean being the #2 seed in the Midwest behind Kansas however as if Dayton lands a #1 seed, they would likely land in the New York region for a more daunting path in terms of locations.
Duke: Youth and road woes
The
Blue Devils haven’t resembled a #1or a #2 seed lately dropping three of the
past four games but wins over Kansas and Michigan State are going to keep Duke
in the mix for a great seed should they finish strong. As usual Duke seems
likely to land a close-to-home draw in Greensboro, particularly with the other major
Tobacco Road power not likely to even be in the field barring a miracle ACC tournament
run.
It
has been a down year for the ACC but Duke is one of only a handful of teams
with a chance to finish as a top 10 offensive and defensive efficiency team and
in great contrast to last year’s popular title contender that fizzled in the
Elite 8, this year’s team is a good outside shooting team and an improved free
throw shooting team. Coach K’s mixed NCAA Tournament track record deserves
scrutiny but the program has made the Elite 8 four of the past seven years though
Duke hasn’t won a title from outside of a #1 seed since Krzyzewski’s first
championship in 1990-91.
Duke
is also just not as talented as last year’s team that featured three players
drafted in the top 10 of the 2019 NBA Draft. Vernon Carey is considered a
borderline lottery pick but the youth of this team has shown up with very
marginal results on the road in ACC play including four losses and a few other
narrow escapes. New York has been kind to Duke as a Greensboro-New York draw
could be very appealing for this group but a strong finish will be needed for
Duke to still have a shot at a preferred seeding placement given the recent
slide.
Michigan State: Inconsistent performances all season
The
preseason #1 didn’t look the part most of the season with nine losses by
mid-February after a stretch of losing four of five early in February including
two losses in East Lansing. With three straight wins including a huge win at
Big Ten leader Maryland last weekend, Michigan State has put itself back in
play for a decent seed on Selection Sunday, possibly even a #2 spot even with a
high loss count. With some help, Michigan State can still win a share of the
Big Ten title though the remaining games with Penn State and Ohio State will be
challenging.
Tom
Izzo has been to eight Final Fours and most impressively is that the past five
trips have come seeded at #5, #2, #5, #7, and a #2 as this team hasn’t needed a
favorable path to get the job done. Less important than seeding could be
locations for the Spartans as drawing a #2 or #3 seed in Indianapolis would be
very appealing if the Spartans finish strong, though there will be great competition
for those spots from teams like Maryland, Seton Hall, Dayton, Kentucky, and
Louisville.
The
Spartans have quietly joined the top 15 of the efficiency rankings on both sides
of the ball to sit in rare company and the Spartans are the #1 effective field
goal rate team on both sides of the ball in the highly competitive and
tightly-packed Big Ten. The conference grind has hurt Michigan State’s record
but could have team prepared for a March run but the inconsistency of a team
that returned three starters from last year’s Final Four team will make this
group difficult to trust. While Izzo’s Final Four appearances stand out,
Michigan State has also lost in the opening weekend of the tournament three of
the past four years.
Seton Hall: Late season health and not living up to its size
The
Pirates don’t have the credentials to earn a #1 seed with seven losses and only
a win over Maryland standing out on the non-conference schedule despite what
will be a stand-alone Big East title with one more win. Size and experience
will make Seton Hall a team that many will pencil into the Final Four even if
the Pirates are in a tougher seeding position than most of the other teams on
this list. Winning out could put the Pirates as a #2 seed in a favorable venue
draw and Myles Powell is the kind of player the team can lean on to carry the
load for a big run.
Kevin
Willard has done well to put Seton Hall into the NCAA Tournament for now a fifth
straight season but trusting him to advance deep into the tournament is
difficult with Willard 2-4 in the NCAA Tournament including a blowout loss to
Wofford last season in Jacksonville. The only quality non-conference win for
Seton Hall last season was also against Maryland and this team has had a few
recent ugly spells on offense, notably in the recent losses to Creighton and
Providence.
Despite the experience of this team, turnovers can be a problem for this team and this is also a marginal 3-point shooting team, ranking seventh in the Big East at just 32 percent. Seton Hall also routinely struggles to dominate on the glass despite having more height than just about any team in the country. The roster could also enter March at less than full strength with Anthony Nelson and Tyrese Samuel missing recent games and Powell battling knee pain the last few weeks. The potential for a #2 seed could also be erased in the next week as well with two difficult games remaining facing Villanova and Creighton to close the regular season.
Maryland: Poor results outside the Big Ten vs. major conference foes
Somewhat
via attrition Maryland looks likely to stand as the Big Ten regular season
champions, though the gap with Maryland at #1 down to Ohio State and Michigan
at #7 and #8 in the standings is miniscule. Maryland ultimately had one of the
weaker Big Ten schedules with only single meetings vs. Penn State, Wisconsin,
and Purdue, while they still haven’t faced Michigan who they will end the
season against next weekend.
If
you are looking for a top 25 win from Maryland in the non-conference schedule,
you’ll have to keep looking as only a neutral site win over Marquette is close to
that range as the overall record looks inflated. Maryland also won 12 of its 13
Big Ten wins by 12 or fewer points as this team could easily have a few more
losses, notably last week’s narrow escape at Minnesota, a game the Terrapins
trailed by 17 in and were still down four in the final minute.
Maryland
has been patient with Mark Turgeon but in this his ninth season, the program
has one Sweet 16 appearance in that span despite a lot of high-profile recruits
coming through College Park. This year’s team has three potential NBA players
in big roles but Turgeon’s team hasn’t held up against quality major conference
foes as his four NCAA Tournament wins in nine seasons have come vs. Valparaiso,
South Dakota State, Hawai’i, and Belmont while getting bounced by Big XII, Big
East, and SEC teams, the caliber of teams Maryland rarely beats in the non-conference
season either. It also needs to be said that despite the strong rating of the
Big Ten, not since 1999-2000 has a Big Ten team actually cut down the nets,
though in fairness Maryland did so as an ACC team in 2001-02.
Kentucky: Not a typical Calapari Wildcats team
Kentucky
has three players that could be drafted in this summer’s NBA draft but almost certainly
no lottery picks as this isn’t the usual John Calapari Kentucky team that has
more talent than almost every opponent. It shows in the numbers as well as
while the Wildcats have rallied to 24-5 and a SEC regular season title, the
current numbers grade this unit as Calapari’s worst defensive team since the #4
seeded 2015-16 team that lost in the Round of 32 to Tom Cream and Indiana. Kentucky
also hasn’t ranked this low nationally on offense since the 2012-13 NIT season.
This year’s team is pretty good at everything but not great at anything even in
a year where the SEC ranks as the worst of the major conferences.
The
current eight-game winning streak features six wins by single-digits as there
have been close calls along the way and Kentucky only had to play LSU and
Mississippi State once in the league draw. Kentucky beat Louisville and Texas Tech
for impressive non-conference wins but both results required overtime and
damaging losses to Evansville and Utah will likely prevent the Wildcats to
climbing to the #2 line unless they win out and see some other contenders for
those spots stumble.
Given
plenty of other teams in the mix for favorable seeds that would like to land in
Dayton, Cleveland, or St. Louis it seems likely that the Wildcats could be sent
to a far away spot in the opening weekend, especially with the SEC Championship
not until the afternoon of Selection Sunday. The only way Kentucky would be
able to claim a #2 seed would be with that title, something the committee may
simply not have time to adjust for.
Louisville: Reliance on 3-point shooting and struggles vs. top teams.
Chris
Mack is clearly a good coach and he has Louisville back in the mix as a
contender in just his second season with the Cardinals even after stepping into
a difficult situation following the toxic exit of Rick Pitino leaving the
program in a tough position for a few years. Mack was a #1 seed and a #2 seed
at Xavier however and didn’t win in the Round of 32 either year however and
Mack’s postseason debut at Louisville was a bit of a humiliating result with a
double-digit loss to Minnesota and Richard Pitino a year ago.
Louisville
played one of the weakest non-conference schedules among teams in the mix for
top seeds in the field and that metric could keep the Cardinals out of
consideration for a top two spot barring titles in both the ACC regular season
and the ACC tournament. Louisville has also played one of the weakest ACC paths
with the entire resume built on the big win at Duke in January, a game Wendell
Moore didn’t play in.
Louisville is ultimately 2-5 vs. top 40 caliber teams this season and without a defense that grades as championship caliber it is very difficult to envision this team running off several high quality wins in a row in March. Louisville is one of the better 3-point shooting teams in the nation with Jordan Nwora a 40 percent shooter beyond the arc but relying on those outside shots in unfamiliar venues can be a risky formula.
This
feels like a year where the eventual champion could come from anywhere as top
seed lines may not be as strong as usual and there will be contenders lurking
all over the board. There are concerns with each of the teams currently in play
for #1 and #2 seeds though the past five champions have all been seeded #1 or
#2 with 10 of the past 13 champions being a #1 seed. The jockeying for those
top four spots in the next two weeks will likely be critical in determining the
champion in Atlanta April 6.
