Free Pick | NBA | Monday | Dec. 23

Nelly’s is on a 19-9 basketball run including 7-2 in our last nine in the NBA – play Monday basketball!

We also have a bowl pick posted for Tuesday – perfect so far in the college postseason!

#540 Miami Heat -10 over Brooklyn Nets 6:40 PM CT

Brooklyn had been a sneaky competitive team early in the season, but trading Dennis Schroder signals no intention of trying to have success this season. Cam Thomas and Ziaire Williams are out right now with Dorian Finney-Smith a question mark as it is a thin roster, and the Nets have gone from 9-10 on Thanksgiving to 2-7 in the past nine games since including five home losses. Five of seven losses for the Nets on this run have come by 11 or more points including a home loss to Utah on Saturday. Miami had a nice four-game winning streak in early December but then took a tough overtime loss in Detroit and then failed in close games with the Thunder and Magic last weekend. The Heat have not lost four games in a row all season and this should be a focused team Monday night, in need of a win before starting a difficult three-game road trip. Jimmy Butler missed the team’s last game but should have a good chance to return tonight and Miami is 6-2 ATS in the past eight games as a home favorite. Miami is just 2-7 S/U vs. the league’s top 10 teams but are 11-6 S/U vs. everyone else. The Nets have played a difficult schedule this season and did win a game in Miami early last season, but the current state of the team and the current desperate spot on the schedule for the Heat should lead to a convincing home win for Miami on Monday.