Free Pick | NBA | Friday | Dec. 6

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Green Sheet College Keys went 5-0 last week and are 28-12 the past 8 weeks!

#555 Los Angeles Lakers +5.5 over Atlanta Hawks 6:40 PM CT

The Lakers are entering this game off back-to-back losses and a 2-6 run the past eight games to spoil what was once a 10-4 start to the season. Los Angeles has been blown out in the past two games, losing by 29 at Minnesota and by 41 at Miami. This is a fourth straight road game, and the Hawks are a on a 5-0 run, climbing above .500 including posting a pair of wins over the Cavaliers and a win in Milwaukee in the past nine days. Atlanta is only 6-5 S/U at home this season and 3-5 vs. Western Conference teams. The Hawks have an average scoring differential of -1.8 and while he is expected to play, Trae Young is fighting Achillies soreness. LeBron James is also battling foot soreness while the Lakers won’t have Austin Reaves tonight, but Anthony Davis is expected to play. James has suggested he may be rethinking his commitment to try to play 82 games but given the ugly loss on Wednesday one should expect that he’ll try to suit up. The recent 2-6 run doesn’t include any bad losses facing some of the better teams in the league and Los Angeles has played 13 games vs. the league’s top 16 teams compared to just 11 by Atlanta. The Hawks have faced the #25 rated schedule while the Lakers have faced the #13 path to reach similar records. Atlanta has been a losing team in the past nine home games and has home losses to multiple losing teams this season as this remains an uneven group despite a few recent high-profile wins. Atlanta faces a gauntlet of tough games the rest of the month as it will be a surprise if the Hawks are still above .500 by the start of 2025. Atlanta is a marginal 3-point shooting team hitting just 34.2 percent this season and the Hawks are the sixth worst turnover team in the NBA, in great contrast to a Lakers team that takes great care of the ball. The defensive numbers have swelled for Los Angeles in the past few games, but Atlanta is the worst 3-point percentage defense in the NBA right now. There is some risk that James sits and this line jumps, but winning teams as underdogs off losses by 40+ are a 60% proposition going back to 1993 and a sharp performance from Los Angeles should be expected.