Free Pick | NCAA | Saturday | Nov. 16

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#393 LSU -3.5 over Florida 2:30 PM CT

LSU has lost back-to-back games and last week’s result was an embarrassment, losing 42-13 hosting Alabama. LSU is still a threat in the SEC picture at 3-2 with three winnable games remaining, however. The Tigers do have quality wins over South Carolina and Ole Miss and this is a team that still has great potential on offense. Florida has had to play Georgia and Texas in the past two games and while the Gators hung around vs. Georgia, the Bulldogs haven’t looked like a quality team this season. Texas won 49-17 hosting Florida last week and there won’t be great enthusiasm in Gainesville for this 4-5 team that has very little shot at a bowl game with LSU and Ole Miss in the next two games. Florida has acknowledged support for Billy Napier as the team’s coach for the future but that was before last week’s game that resulted in a 35-0 halftime deficit. In fairness Florida was down to its third quarterback and the drop-off has been severe. DJ Lagway is expected to return this week but that keeps this price low with LSU just a slight favorite. These teams have similar numbers in the running game, but Garrett Nussmeier is still an NFL caliber quarterback prospect for LSU despite the interception count climbing the past two games. LSU is 5-0 S/U and 4-0-1 ATS since 2019 in this series and the Tigers have scored at least 37 points in each of those games. Florida has not proven it can provide the same scoring pace and last season LSU was more than a two-touchdown favorite in this matchup. This is a good buy-low spot on LSU and Florida is just 2-3 ATS in the last five as a home underdog.

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