Free Pick | NCAA | Saturday | Nov. 2

Nelly’s has had a winning Saturday three of the past four weeks and we’ll look to start November with a great day including an early side play plus our 2/3 offer!

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#363 Arizona State -4 over Oklahoma State 2:35 PM CT

With weather expected tonight this game was shifted to an afternoon game. Arizona State lost its last game two weeks ago while playing without quarterback Sam Leavitt, who is expected back this week after the bye. While Leavitt and the offense offer promise with a great rushing attack that has averaged 5.5 yards per carry, Kenny Dillingham’s second season in Tempe is proving to be a success thanks to the Arizona State defense, allowing just over 23 points per game this season. Oklahoma State being 0-5 in the Big XII is a shocking result, with the Cowboys allowing nearly 36 points per game. The defense was marginal last season for a 7-2 Cowboys team that played in the Big XII Championship, but it has been much worse this season. Oklahoma State has allowed 7.2 yards per rush in the past three games and the Sun Devils have a great rushing attack that has averaged 208 yards per game, a top 10 average nationally. This looks like a set-up that should provide Oklahoma State a good opportunity, but Ollie Gordon is a question mark as the only effective rusher on the team. That puts even more pressure on Alan Bowman who has eight interceptions in five Big XII games and has completed more than 58 percent of his passes just once in Big XII play. Stillwater used to feature a meaningful home field edge but the Cowboys have scored 19 and 14 in two Big XII home games. The 39-31 win over Arkansas early in the season looks impressive but that was an underserved result with Oklahoma State winning in double-overtime while outgained 648-385. Oklahoma State does have a strong recent home underdog track record that may be enticing for some, but the injuries look too significant to overcome, and Arizona State’s strengths fit the weaknesses for the Cowboys. It is also worth noting that while Oklahoma State did post 433 yards last week, they ran 76 plays to get there, while the defense allowed 9.7 yards per play, a figure rarely seen in power conference play.