Free Pick | NCAA | Saturday | Oct. 12

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#194 Texas State -13.5 over Arkansas State 6:00 PM CT

Texas State is just 3-2 this season but the losses came by three points and just one point. The Bobcats had a production edge vs. Arizona State but lost by three in a game they had three turnovers in. Texas State also outgained Sam Houston but missed a field goal to go up by five and wound up losing by one in the final seconds. In that game Texas State had two late 4th down failures and were hit with 11 penalties. The Bobcats lost 77-31 at Arkansas State last November but the team went through a late season lull after clinching a bowl bid earlier in the month. The Arkansas State game came in a tough set-up following a narrow loss at Coastal Carolina for a difficult second straight road game while the Bobcats had four turnovers and allowed four non-offensive touchdowns to hide a 539-487 yardage edge. Arkansas State is 3-2 this season and the losses have been forgivable to Michigan and Iowa State. The Red Wolves aren’t far from being 0-5, however, with three wins by a combined total of nine points. Arkansas state was outgained in a narrow win hosting South Alabama last week while needing to rally from down 10 in the second half to beat a Tulsa team that has mostly struggled this season. The opening win against FCS Central Arkansas was a miracle result with a touchdown with three seconds to go as well. Arkansas State has averaged just 2.1 yards per rush in the past three games while allowing 5.6 yards per rush as Texas State could have a dramatic rushing edge in this game. The Bobcats are posting 4.6 yards per rush on offense while allowing just 3.4 this season. Arkansas State quarterback Jaylen Raynor has more interceptions than touchdowns and has completed just 49 percent of his passes on the road. Texas State won by 21 at Troy last Thursday to add two extra days in the turnaround for this revenge spot. Jordan McCloud has already thrown for 15 touchdowns this season at a nearly 70 percent completion rate while also offering strong mobility. Arkansas State is 0-5 ATS as a double-digit road underdog since the start of last season and last year’s humiliating and misleading result should supply plenty of fuel for the Bobcats and excellent head coach G.J. Kinne this week.