Free Pick | MLB | Thursday | Oct. 10

Nelly’s is 4-1 in our last five MLB playoff picks!

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#913/914 UNDER 6.5 Cleveland Guardians (Bibee) at Detroit Tigers (Olson) 5:08 PM CT

There were only three runs and 11 hits Wednesday in Game 3, a second straight 3-0 Tigers win. All three games in this series have been shutouts with a combined total of only 13 runs scored. Tanner Bibee started Game 1 for the Guardians and while he didn’t complete five innings, he didn’t allow a run and struck out six. Game 2 was scoreless into the 9th inning and the Guardians face elimination today despite running away with the AL Central in the regular season. Detroit and Cleveland are knotted at 8-8 in the season series at this point with an average of 7.7 runs per game. Bibee had a 2.76 ERA on the road in the regular season and in his four starts since July vs. the Tigers he has allowed just seven runs in nearly 23 innings of work as his one bad outing vs. the Tigers was back in early May. Reese Olson has pitched much better than his 4-8 record might suggest with a 3.17 FIP in the regular season. He threw five strong innings with one run allowed in relief in Game 1 and he had a pair of quality starts vs. the Guardians in the regular season, allowing just seven hits and four earned runs in 12 innings. Both bullpens have a wealth of quality options and both managers are willing to make advantageous pitching moves early and often. Game 3 on Wednesday included 13 pitchers in the game and more of the same is likely today with only Brant Hurter likely unavailable for the Tigers while Cleveland’s full complement of relievers should be ready to pitch. There were opportunities yesterday with 18 combined at-bats with runners in scoring position but another cool afternoon game in Detroit with a wind blowing in from left center should limit the big hit potential in this game. These have been marginal offensive teams all season, led by pitching and great defense and while this is a low total, runs should again be hard to come by in Game 4.