Free Pick | MLB | Tuesday | Oct. 1

Don’t miss MLB playoff picks from Nelly’s and Bobby Dalton this week!

#937 Kansas City Royals (Ragans) +130 over Baltimore Orioles (Burnes) 3:08 PM CT

Cole Ragans finished with the fourth lowest FIP in MLB in the regular season at 2.99. In his final four starts he pitched 25 innings with only 14 hits and three earned runs allowed. He had mixed results vs. Baltimore this season including one of his worst starts but both of those outings were in April and the last time he pitched at Oriole Park he allowed one hit in more than six innings. Corbin Burnes lived up to his billing as the ace of the Orioles this season. While he has pitched well in his last few starts, he has taken five losses in his last eight starts with a 3.82 FIP in that span. His recent home results have been strong but his final three home starts were against the White Sox, Rays, and Tigers for favorable draws. Burnes pitched poorly in the wild card round last season for the Brewers, lasting only four innings in a loss. While the Royals lacked great bullpen for the season, the numbers were great in the final stretch of the regular season posting a 0.85 ERA and a 0.76 WHIP in the final 10 games in great contrast to rough numbers for Baltimore relievers in recent weeks. The Orioles have the stronger lineup but the overall splits for the Royals vs. right-handers and the Orioles vs. left-handers are remarkably similar. Baltimore will face all the pressure in this game after last season’s poor postseason performance as the AL #1 seed and no playoff wins since 2014, a span of eight straight postseason losses including getting swept by Kansas City in the 2014 ALCS.  Baltimore is just .500 since the All-Star Break as this type of favoritism with the slightly better pitcher on the mound for the road team isn’t justified.