Free Pick | Sunday | NFL | Sep. 29

Nelly’s won our NCAA 2/3 yesterday – check out our NFL 2/3 for Sunday’s Week 4 schedule:

#275 Denver Broncos +8 over New York Jets 12:00 PM CT

There is a bit of bad blood between these teams with Jets offensive coordinator Nathanial Hackett fired by Denver in the 2022 season. The Jets beat Denver 31-21 last season but a fumble return touchdown sealed the win as Russell Wilson outplayed Zach Wilson, but the Jets got the victory. The Jets have an extended turnaround after Thursday’s win and the offense has managed back-to-back 24-point showings with enthusiasm for a big season for the franchise growing. The next three teams on the schedule for the Jets after this game are a combined 9-0 as this is an important game in the big picture. The convincing Thursday win may be boosting New York’s valuation a bit too far, however. Denver surprised 2-0 Tampa Bay last week with good production from the offense while holding the Buccaneers to just 4.0 yards per play. This is back-to-back road games for the Broncos on the east coast, but they stayed in West Virginia this week and overall, Denver has competed well this season despite the dire preseason projections. Many are flocking to bet Aaron Rodgers over Nix but Rodgers is 11th in QBR this season, narrowly above Nix who is 14th at 55.2, nearly 14 points better than Rodgers finished in his last full season in 2022.  It takes more than beating the Titans and Patriots to deserve a spread past seven in this era of the NFL and backing big underdogs of 6 or higher has been quite profitable early in the 2024 season.