Free Pick | MLB | Tuesday | Aug. 13

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#901/902 OVER 8.5 Miami Marlins (Bellozo) at Philadelphia Phillies (Walker) 5:40 PM CT

Rookie Vallente Bellozo is expected to get the start for Miami and while his MLB numbers through four starts look good, he had just a 4.67 ERA in AAA this season. He has yet to complete six innings in a start and the Miami bullpen is in rough shape right now including a 6.44 ERA in the past 10 games. Miami and Philadelphia have combined for at least 10 runs in five of seven meetings this season and the Marlins have scored at least six runs four times in the past eight games. The bullpen has endured a heavy workload with only two six-inning starting efforts in the past 10 games and a tense high-scoring series with San Diego over the weekend. Philadelphia is just 7-15 since the All-Star Break and the pitching staff allowed 23 runs Saturday and Sunday. Taijuan Walker owns a 5.80 FIP with a 5.60 ERA this season with a high walk rate of 3.6 BB/9 and a HR/9 of more than 2.0. Walker hasn’t pitched better in his home innings, and he hasn’t pitched at all since late June as he isn’t likely a candidate for a deep effective outing. Philadelphia’s bullpen had a 5.54 ERA in the past 10 games as well. Philadelphia is back home after a long road trip and the offense has still reached five runs six times in the past nine games and another ‘over’ with the ‘over’ 5-2 on the season between these teams looks probable.

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